Regional climate resilience index: A novel multimethod comparative approach for indicator development, empirical validation and implementation

Abstract

High uncertainty in the occurrence of extreme events and disasters have made resilience-building an imperative part of society. Resilience assessment is an important tool in this context. Resilience is multidimensional as well as place-, scale- and time-specific, which requires a comprehensive approach for measuring and analysing. In this regard, composite indicators are preferred, and extensive literature is available on resilience indices on all spatial and temporal scales as well as hazard-specific or multi-hazard related indicators. However, transparent, robust, validated and transferable metrics are still missing from the scientific discourse. Hence, the research follows a novel composite index development approach: First, to develop and operationalise climate resilience on the county level in the state of Baden-Württemberg, Germany; second, to develop multiple composite indices in order to assess the impact of the construction methodology to increase transparency and decrease uncertainty; third, validating the index by statistical as well as empirical data and machine learning models - which is a novel endeavour so far. The results underscored that the two-step inclusive validation of data-driven statistical analysis in combination with empirical data proved to be essential in developing the index during the selection and aggregation of indicators. The results also highlighted a lower climate resilience of rural regions compared to metropolitan regions despite their better environmental status. Overall, machine learning proved to be essential in understanding and linking indicators and indices to policy, resilience and empirical data. The research contributes to a better understanding of climate resilience as well as to the methodological construction of composite indicators.