Regime Confluence in Automobile Industry Transformation: Boundary Dissolution and Network Reintegration via CASE Vehicles

Abstract

Technological innovations in sociotechnical transitions are usually found in market or spatial niches. These novel niches may sometimes emerge and expand, and eventually may erode an established sociotechnical system regime. In this paper, we redefined niche emergence as potentially consequent from the convergence of different regimes. That is, it is proposed that innovative niches may be grounded in established regimes but subsequently expand or bridge to previously distinct and separate other sociotechnical system regimes. However, the extension of overlapping regimes creates new forms of “external” competition for industrial participants inside each regime. This paper therefore proposes that regime–regime confluence may be observed in (1) the boundaries between regimes potentially being broken via emergent new niches; (2) pre-existing local networks being fragmented and reformed into exclusive and/or wider networks; and (3) competitive challenges and pressures arising both from inside and outside the traditional industry. These outcomes are illustrated in this paper with the case of automobility transitions arising from the combination of C (connected), A (autonomous), S (shared), and E (electric) cars. The paper presents an analysis of 340 instances of regime–regime boundary crossing examples over 10 years of data drawn from specialist industry journals and websites. The number and diversity of the validated results show that CASE vehicles are both a cause and consequence of automobile industry transition, and hence that regime–regime confluence is an important neglected source of innovation and structural change.