Reflecting on IPEF’s impact and charting the future: a perspective of US domestic politics

Abstract

AbstractThe Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a key economic component of the Biden administration’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific, was launched to serve both economic and geopolitical purposes. At the heart of these objectives is the aim to undermine China’s growing influence in the Asia–Pacific region. If well implemented, it is expected to pose a series of challenges to China. The Biden administration’s strategic project, however, is very likely to fall short of its ambitious goals due to the constraints imposed by the US domestic politics, which significantly influences the content of the IPEF and the overall negotiation process. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have been embracing protectionism more than ever, which has greatly undercut the concessional space for any free trade move. In areas such as supply chain resilience, clean economy and fair economy, where the IPEF member states have come to consensus, the Biden administration has chosen to take a pro-workers approach notwithstanding the divergent interest pursuits by different interest groups within the US. This politically correct approach, however, is likely to face challenges in its implementation, as it largely conflicts with the interests of major corporations. Additionally, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives holds the purse strings, adding another layer of complexity to the situation. Meanwhile, the tussles and uncertainties surrounding the domestic politics of the US is very likely to discourage other member states.