Reference Priors for Matrix-Variate Dynamic Linear Models

Abstract

We develop reference analysis for matrix-variate dynamic models with unknown observation covariance matrices. Bayesian algorithms for forecasting, estimation, and filtering are derived. This work extends the existing theory of reference analysis for univariate dynamic linear models, and thus it proposes a solution to the specification of the prior distributions for a very wide class of time series models. Subclasses of our models include the widely used multivariate and matrix-variate regression models.