Reduced Order Probabilistic Emulator of RAM‐SCB: Toward Non‐Linearity With Autoencoders

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Abstract An accurate understanding of the Earth's ring current dynamics is integral to predicting the impacts of geomagnetic storms. We use physics‐based models to simulate the ring current such as the Ring‐current Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent Magnetic Field (RAM‐SCB). However, physics‐based models are computationally expensive. Therefore, we employ reduced order models (ROMs) to speed up computation. In this study, we present a ROM of RAM‐SCB using autoencoder neural networks (AE) as well as orthogonal autoencoders (OAE) and compare it to a previous study which used Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We also use this ROM to produce a Reduced Order Probabilistic Emulator (ROPE), where we use an ensemble Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) in combination with ResNets (LSTM + ResNet) neural networks to emulate RAM‐SCB in the reduced state. We show a significant improvement in using AEs over PCA and present a ROPE that can forecast the ring current particle fluxes 1 hour ahead.

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The numerical simulation of multiple scenarios easily becomes computationally prohibitive for cardiac electrophysiology (EP) problems if relying on usual high-fidelity, full order models (FOMs). Likewise, the use of traditional reduced order models (ROMs) for parametrized PDEs to speed up the solution of the aforementioned problems can be problematic. This is primarily due to the strong variability characterizing the solution set and to the nonlinear nature of the input-output maps that we intend to reconstruct numerically. To enhance ROM efficiency, we proposed a new generation of non-intrusive, nonlinear ROMs, based on deep learning (DL) algorithms, such as convolutional, feedforward, and autoencoder neural networks. In the proposed DL-ROM, both the nonlinear solution manifold and the nonlinear reduced dynamics used to model the system evolution on that manifold can be learnt in a non-intrusive way thanks to DL algorithms trained on a set of FOM snapshots. DL-ROMs were shown to be able to accurately capture complex front propagation processes, both in physiological and pathological cardiac EP, very rapidly once neural networks were trained, however, at the expense of huge training costs. In this study, we show that performing a prior dimensionality reduction on FOM snapshots through randomized proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) enables to speed up training times and to decrease networks complexity. Accuracy and efficiency of this strategy, which we refer to as POD-DL-ROM, are assessed in the context of cardiac EP on an idealized left atrium (LA) geometry and considering snapshots arising from a NURBS (non-uniform rational B-splines)-based isogeometric analysis (IGA) discretization. Once the ROMs have been trained, POD-DL-ROMs can efficiently solve both physiological and pathological cardiac EP problems, for any new scenario, in real-time, even in extremely challenging contexts such as those featuring circuit re-entries, that are among the factors triggering cardiac arrhythmias.

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In the present study, a nonlinear system identification approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is applied for the prediction of transonic buffet aerodynamics. The identification approach is applied as a reduced-order modeling (ROM) technique for an efficient computation of time-varying integral quantities such as aerodynamic force and moment coefficients. Therefore, the nonlinear identification procedure as well as the generalization of the ROM are presented. The training data set for the LSTM–ROM is provided by performing forced-motion unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations. Subsequent to the training process, the ROM is applied for the computation of the aerodynamic integral quantities associated with transonic buffet. The performance of the trained ROM is demonstrated by computing the aerodynamic loads of the NACA0012 airfoil investigated at transonic freestream conditions. In contrast to previous studies considering only a pitching excitation, both the pitch and plunge degrees of freedom of the airfoil are individually and simultaneously excited by means of an user-defined training signal. Therefore, strong nonlinear effects are considered for the training of the ROM. By comparing the results with a full-order computational fluid dynamics solution, a good prediction capability of the presented ROM method is indicated. However, compared to the results of previous studies including only the airfoil pitching excitation, a slightly reduced prediction performance is shown.

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