Abstract
Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20th century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21st century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901–2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21st century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.
Highlights
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We show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901–2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21st century than models that perform best in the remaining years
Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble
Summary
Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe. Author(s): Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I. In the recent past Europe experienced extensive heat waves in 2003 (Central Europe)[1] and 2010 (Eastern Europe)[2] with severe impacts on economy, public health[3] and the carbon cycle[4] These events are in line with a projected increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperatures in Europe in the near future[5], possibly associated with higher evapotranspiration[6,7]. The 2015 Central European summer was comparable with recent extreme events in terms of temperatures (e.g. daily temperature records were broken in various locations), yet here we demonstrate that it was unprecedented in terms of the precipitation deficit. We analyze this event over the Central European domain defined in the IPCC special report on extremes[5] ( referred to as CEU), and assess it in the context of climate model simulations that contributed to the recent IPCC AR5 report[14]
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