Recent Extreme Runoff Observations From Coastal Arctic Watersheds in Alaska

Abstract

AbstractArctic coastal watersheds, though rarely monitored, are expected to have increased runoff, as climate models predict more precipitation in the Arctic. This study provides a synthesis of streamflow changes in watersheds of the Alaska Arctic Coastal Plain (AACP) based on available historic discharge data and water balance analysis. A comparison of annual runoff from the Putuligayuk River watershed (471 km2) from the period 1970–1986 (78 ± 24.1 mm/yr) to the period 1999–2015 (122 ± 49.6 mm/yr) shows increasing discharge and interannual variability. From this discontinuous record of 32 years, the three lowest runoff years occurred in 1979, 2007, and 2008, and the three highest runoff years occurred in 2003, 2014, and 2015. Other studied AACP watersheds with shorter discharge records demonstrate similar patterns of dry (2007–2008) and wet (2014–2015) years during common periods of observation. A combination of favorable antecedent surface storage conditions and above‐average precipitation is required to generate large volumes of surface runoff. A strong relationship between climate, surface storage, and runoff inherent to AACP watersheds makes these systems highly responsive to sea ice retreat and hydrological intensification. Our new estimates of freshwater flux from the AACP to the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea account for an observed range of runoff variability and provide baseline data for modeling arctic hydrologic systems.