Abstract
Abstract. The paper aims to investigate the occurrences of rainstorms and their relationship with the climate change scenario. The study period under investigation refers to the period of greatest recent warming between 1976–2000 whereas the study area covers China east of 105 E longitude. This region is commonly considered to be controlled by the monsoon type of climate over East Asia. Positive (increasing) trends of rainstorm occurrences, both in annual and summer respects, have been shown for subtropical China whereas a non-uniform picture is associated with temperate China. The increase of rainstorms in subtropical China corresponds with an increasing trend of precipitation. At the same time, subtropical China experiences a mostly decreasing recent temperature change. No clear evidence could, however, be proved for a direct linkage between increasing temperatures and greater rainstorm occurrences. Within the climate change scenario a great risk of rainstorm occurrences must be regarded as part of the increasing risk of extreme weather events. Rainstorm occurrences are of a great practical importance as they increase the risk for environmental hazards such as landslides, landslips and floods. Landuse planners must therefore pay a great attention to an increasing number of rainstorms and their adverse risk impact on the environment. Such practical aspects need particular attention in subtropical China as the region of largest increase of rainstorm occurrences and where, at the same time, the mountains and hilly landscapes are particularly hazard-prone to landslides and floods.
Highlights
The climate change scenario is, in a global approach, well documented with the status of knowledge deliberately described in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) which updated the previous report (IPCC, 2001)
Rainstorm occurrences are unevenly distributed over space (Fig. 2)
Spatial trend patterns widely correspond between annual and summer totals showing synchronously a significantly increasing trend for Subtropical China while a complex pattern occurs for Temperate China
Summary
The climate change scenario is, in a global approach, well documented with the status of knowledge deliberately described in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) which updated the previous report (IPCC, 2001). The IPCC Report (2001) demonstrates that increase in global temperatures since the late 19th century occurred in two distinct periods: 1910– 1945 and 1976–2000. Strengthening of warming in the most recent decades is remarkably shown by the observation that of the last warmest years (1995–2006) rank among the 12 warmest years over the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850), IPCC (2007). Existing are remarkable spatial variabilities of recent climate change with highest warming trends over the northern land-surface occupying Northern America and Eurasia, including China. The magnitude of increase varies over space, mostly at rates between 0.5–1.0◦C with the greatest warming trend of 2.6◦C, referring to the 50-yr period 1951–2000. Focusing on Asia, increasing precipitation has been observed over central Asia opposite to decreasing trends over parts of southern Asia (IPCC, 2007). As a consequence of temperature change increasing occurrences of extreme weather events are likely supposed, including rainstorms, associated with negative impacts on the environment, such as landslides and soil erosion
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