Recent Active Wildland Fires Related to Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB) in Alaska

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

Most wildland fires in boreal forests occur during summer, but major fires in the lower Amur River Basin of the southern Khabarovsk Krai (SKK) mainly occur in spring. To reduce active fires in the SKK, we carried out daily analysis of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) hotspot (HS) data and various weather charts. HS data of 17 years from 2003 were used to identify the average seasonal fire occurrence. Active fire-periods were extracted by considering the number of daily HSs and their continuity. Weather charts, temperature maps, and wind maps during the top 12 active fire-periods were examined to clarify each fire weather condition. Analysis results showed that there were four active fire-periods that occurred in April, May, July, and October. Weather charts during the top active fire-periods showed active fires in April and October occurred under strong wind conditions (these wind velocities were over 30 km h−1) related to low-pressure systems. The very active summer fire at the end of June 2012 occurred related to warm air mass advection promoted by large westerly meandering. We showed clear fire weather conditions in the SKK from March to October. If a proper fire weather forecast is developed based on our results, more efficient and timely firefighting can be carried out.

This study investigates the characteristics of extratropical Rossby wave breaking (RWB) during the Atlantic hurricane season and its impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It was found that RWB perturbs the wind and moisture fields throughout the troposphere in the vicinity of a breaking wave. When RWB occurs more frequently over the North Atlantic, the Atlantic main development region (MDR) is subject to stronger vertical wind shear and reduced tropospheric moisture; the basinwide TC counts are reduced, and TCs are generally less intense, have a shorter lifetime, and are less likely to make landfalls. A significant negative correlation was found between Atlantic TC activity and RWB occurrence during 1979–2013. The correlation is comparable to that with the MDR SST index and stronger than that with the Niño-3.4 index. Further analyses suggest that the variability of RWB occurrence in the western Atlantic is largely independent of that in the eastern Atlantic. The RWB occurrence in the western basin is more closely tied to the environmental variability of the tropical North Atlantic and is more likely to hinder TC intensification or reduce the TC lifetime because of its proximity to the central portion of TC tracks. Consequently, the basinwide TC counts and the accumulated cyclone energy have a strong correlation with western-basin RWB occurrence but only a moderate correlation with eastern-basin RWB occurrence. The results highlight the extratropical impacts on Atlantic TC activity and regional climate via RWB and provide new insights into the variability and predictability of TC activity.

In this study, we investigate the rate at which the Silk Road pattern (SRP) with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) near the Asian jet exit causes the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern in boreal summer. In this study, the SRP case is detected using the two principal components of upper-tropospheric meridional winds over Eurasia and characterized by the presence of an upper-level anticyclonic anomaly over the Yellow Sea or near Japan. They are further classified into cases with and without RWBs.In the SRP case with RWB, the upper-level anticyclonic anomaly near the Asian jet exit has a more extended shape in the zonal direction and larger amplitude than in the case without RWB. In the composite, a wave train associated with the SRP appears over Eurasia, which is accompanied by the RWB near the Asian jet exit. The occurrence of RWB is associated with strong deceleration and diffluence in the basic state there. The RWB promotes enhanced convection on its southern side due to the intrusion of upper-level high potential vorticity toward the southwest, resulting in the formation of the PJ pattern. The excited PJ pattern in the composite has a dipole structure with cyclonic anomalies to the south and anticyclonic anomalies to the north. Approximately 60–70 % of the SRP case with RWB is accompanied by the PJ patterns.Conversely, in the case of the SRP without RWB, the composite represents a wave train structure over Eurasia but indicates neither enhanced convection south of the RWB nor PJ patterns. Approximately 40–50 % of the SRP case without RWBs is accompanied by the PJ patterns. Hence, the presence of RWBs increases the percentage of the formation of positive PJ patterns by a factor of 1.2–1.7, indicating that the RWB plays an important role in the excitation of PJ patterns.

The two‐way relationship between Rossby wave‐breaking (RWB) and intensification of extratropical cyclones is analysed over the Euro‐Atlantic sector. In particular, the timing, intensity and location of cyclone development are related to RWB occurrences. For this purpose, two indices based on potential temperature are used to detect and classify anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB episodes from ERA‐40 reanalysis data. Results show that explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic (NA) is fostered by enhanced occurrence of RWB on days prior to the cyclone's maximum intensification. Under such conditions, the eddy‐driven jet stream is accelerated over the NA, thus enhancing conditions for cyclogenesis. For explosive cyclogenesis over the eastern NA, enhanced cyclonic RWB over eastern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over the subtropical NA are observed. Typically only one of these is present in any given case, with the RWB over eastern Greenland being more frequent than its southern counterpart. This leads to an intensification of the jet over the eastern NA and enhanced probability of windstorms reaching western Europe. Explosive cyclones evolving under simultaneous RWB on both sides of the jet feature a higher mean intensity and deepening rates than cyclones preceded by a single RWB event. Explosive developments over the western NA are typically linked to a single area of enhanced cyclonic RWB over western Greenland. Here, the eddy‐driven jet is accelerated over the western NA. Enhanced occurrence of cyclonic RWB over southern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over Europe is also observed after explosive cyclogenesis, potentially leading to the onset of Scandinavian blocking. However, only very intense developments have a considerable influence on the large‐scale atmospheric flow. Non‐explosive cyclones depict no sign of enhanced RWB over the whole NA area. We conclude that the links between RWB and cyclogenesis over the Euro‐Atlantic sector are sensitive to the cyclone's maximum intensity, deepening rate and location.

Fire activity in 288 areas (2.5° N × 10° E) in the Arctic region (50°–70° N, 0°–360° E) was analyzed using about 4.4 million satellite hotspot (HS) data from 2002 to 2021. A total of 21 high fire density areas from eastern Europe to western Canada were selected, and their fire–weather conditions during each active fire period were analyzed using about 1820 various weather maps at the upper and the lower air level. Analysis results showed that the active fires in the Arctic region occurred under the fire–weather conditions associated with the northward movement of cut-off high (COH) and warm air masses detached from the south caused by large westerly meandering (LWM). LWM is a sign of the beginning of an active fire period. Very active fires on HS peak days occurred several days after the start of the northward movement of COHs and under mainly high-pressure conditions in the upper air and strong wind conditions in the lower air. The time lag of these several days suggests that we may be prepared for very active fires. The fire–weather analysis approach described in this paper has shown that future large-scale fire outbreaks are predictable.

This study investigates the connection between Rossby wave breaking (RWB) and extreme East Asian cold air outbreaks (CAO) from a diagnostic perspective. CAOs are quantified by the integral of equatorward cold air mass flux below the 280 K isentropic surface, and RWB is characterized by breaking extent, the ratio of breaking meridians to the meridional span within a region. Four key regions are identified based on cold air fluxes and RWB frequency. Results show that extreme western CAOs (WCAOs) are associated with significantly increased anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) upstream (region 1) and cyclonic wave breaking (CWB) downstream (regions 3 and 4), while extreme eastern CAOs (ECAOs) are linked to increased upstream AWB in region 1 and reduced midstream CWB in region 3 prior to onset. Given the occurrence of RWB, these events also influence cold air flux strength and the occurrence of extreme CAOs, indicating a reciprocal relationship between CAO and RWB over specific regions. Composite analysis reveals three distinct synoptic evolution archetypes: extreme WCAOs coincide with upstream AWBs in region 1 and CWBs in region 3, while ECAOs are preceded either by AWBs in region 1 about three days prior or by CWBs in region 3 around six days earlier. It further shows that different extreme CAOs exhibit distinct wave evolution patterns: the inverted omega-shaped circulations associated with WCAOs originate from a localized wave train over central Russia, while those linked to ECAOs stem from a global wave train from southeastern North America to the North Pacific.

Winter 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterized by recurrent clustering of extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic jet and was also associated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. The occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is further studied in 36 years of the ERA‐Interim Reanalysis. Clustering at 55°N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong eddy‐driven jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)°N has a dominance of RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northward (southward). A positive correlation was found between clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships.

<p>The weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are largely determined by the absence or presence of extratropical cyclones. Frequent passage of cyclones over the same location in quick succession (serial clustering) can lead to accumulated impacts such as flooding and wind damage. These impacts have motivated a wide variety of research studies into serial cyclone clustering.  However, the different definitions, metrics and datasets used in this research makes comparison of results difficult.  The aim of this study is to review the previous research and provide clear a framework for serial cyclone clustering into which past and future studies can be placed, allowing easier comparison of results irrespective of the research direction.</p><p> </p><p>We find that several climatologies of serial cyclone clustering agree as to where clustering occurs preferentially, but these studies are largely limited to the North Atlantic. Future projections of cyclone clustering are highly uncertain.  This is largely due to sample uncertainty, caused by short timeseries, and poor representation of key processes such as Rossby wave breaking, caused by low spatial resolution. Research investigating the dynamical mechanisms determining when and why serial cyclone clustering occurs have shown that clustering is linked to the position of the jet stream and the occurrence of Rossby wave breaking.  Studies have investigated this link for different aggregation timescales. On daily timescales cyclone clustering is related to jet streaks and families of cyclones forming on the same frontal feature. On seasonal timescales active seasons are often associate with persistent large-scale flow patterns and successive Rossby wave breaking events. Current knowledge gaps and future research directions are identified.</p>

Wildland fires cause economic and ecological damage with devastating consequences, including loss of life. To reduce these risks, numerous fire detection and recognition systems using deep learning techniques have been developed. However, the limited availability of annotated datasets has decelerated the development of reliable deep learning techniques for detecting and monitoring fires. For such, a novel dataset, namely, SWIFT, is presented in this paper for detecting and recognizing wildland smoke and fires. SWIFT includes a large number of synthetic images and videos of smoke and wildfire with their corresponding annotations, as well as environmental data, including temperature, humidity, wind direction, and speed. It represents various wildland fire scenarios collected from multiple viewpoints, covering forest interior views, views near active fires, ground views, and aerial views. In addition, three deep learning models, namely, BoucaNet, DC-Fire, and CT-Fire, are adopted to recognize forest fires and address their related challenges. These models are trained using the SWIFT dataset and tested using real fire images. BoucaNet performed well in recognizing wildland fires and overcoming challenging limitations, including the complexity of the background, the variation in smoke and wildfire features, and the detection of small wildland fire areas. This shows the potential of sim-to-real deep learning in wildland fires.

Several studies have found an eastward shift in the northern node of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winters of 1978–97 compared to 1958–77. This study focuses on the connection between this shift of the northern node of the NAO and Rossby wave breaking (RWB) for the period 1958–97. It is found that the region of frequent cyclonic RWB underwent a northeastward shift at high latitudes in the latter 20-yr period. On a year-to-year basis, the cyclonic RWB region moves along a southwest–northeast (SW–NE)-directed axis. Both latitude and longitude of the winter maximum frequency of cyclonic RWB occurrence are positively correlated with the NAO index. To investigate the role of location of cyclonic RWB in influencing the NAO pattern, the geographical location of frequent cyclonic RWB is divided into two subdomains located along the SW–NE axis, to the south (SW domain) and east (NE domain) of Greenland. Two composites are assembled as one cyclonic RWB occurrence is detected in one of the two subdomains in 6-hourly instantaneous data. The forcing of the mean flow due to cyclonic RWB within individual subdomains is found to be locally restricted to where the breaking occurs, which is usually near the jet exit region and far removed from the jet core. The difference in the jet between the NE and SW composites resembles the difference in the mean jet between the 1978–97 and 1958–77 periods, which suggests that the change in cyclonic RWB occurrence in the two subdomains is associated with the wobbling of the jet on the decadal time scale.

This study explores the connection of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) with tropical and extratropical variability during the Atlantic hurricane season. The exploration emphasizes subtropical anticyclonic RWB events over the western North Atlantic, which strongly affect tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The first part of the study investigates the link between RWB and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Tropical SST variability affects tropical precipitation and modulates the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the subtropical Atlantic, which influences the behaviors of Rossby waves and the frequency of RWB occurrence. Meanwhile, RWB regulates surface heat fluxes and helps to sustain SST anomalies in the western North Atlantic. The second part of the study explores the connections between RWB and extratropical atmosphere variability by leveraging weather regime analysis. The weather regimes over the North Atlantic are closely associated with RWB over the eastern North Atlantic and western Europe, but show weak associations with RWB over the western North Atlantic. Instead, RWB over the western basin is closely related to the weather regimes in the North Pacific–North America sector. The finding helps clarify why the correlation between the Atlantic TC activity and the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation is tenuous. The relations between the extratropical weather regimes and tropical climate modes are also discussed. The findings suggest that both tropical and extratropical variability are important for understanding variations of RWB events and their impacts on Atlantic TC activity.

Seasonal and event-driven changes in the phytoplankton communities in the Araçá Bay and adjacent waters

The development and utilization of wind energy is of great significance to the sustainable development of China’s economy and the realization of the “dual carbon” goal. Under typhoon conditions, the randomness and volatility of wind speed significantly impact the energy efficiency and design of wind turbines. This paper analyzed the changes in wind speed and direction using the BFAST method and Hurst index based on data collected at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, and 70 m heights from a wind power tower in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, the paper examined the causes of wind speed and direction changes using wind speed near the typhoon center, distance from the typhoon center to the wind tower, topographic data, and mesoscale system wind direction data. The conclusions drawn are as follows: (i) Using the BEAST method, change points were identified at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, and 70 m heights, with 5, 5, 6, and 6 change points respectively. The change points at 10 m, 30 m, and 50 m occurred around node 325, while the change time at 70 m was inconsistent with other heights. Hurst index results indicated stronger inconsistency at 70 m altitude compared to other altitudes. (ii) By analyzing the wind direction sequence at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, and 70 m, it was found that the wind direction changes follow the sequence Southeast (SE)—East (E)—Southeast (SE)—Southwest (SW)—West (W)—Northwest (NW). Notably, the trend of wind direction at 70 m significantly differed from other altitudes during the wind speed strengthening and weakening stages. (iii) Wind speed at 10 m and 70 m altitudes responded differently to the distance from the typhoon center and the wind near the typhoon center. The correlation between wind speed and the distance to the typhoon center was stronger at 10 m than at 70 m. The surface type and the mesoscale system’s wind direction also influenced the wind speed and direction. This study provides methods and theoretical support for analyzing short-term wind speed changes during typhoons, offering reliable support for selecting wind power forecast indicators and designing wind turbines under extreme gale weather conditions.

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001–2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001–2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77% of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9% per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.Key PointsWildland, cropland, and prescribed fires had different trends and patternsSensitivity to climate varied with fire typeIntensity of air quality regulation influenced cropland burning trends