Abstract
By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages.
Highlights
With rapid climate disruption, many species may adapt by shifting their ranges independently of other species [1,2]
We focused on California because it is a large, floristically and topographically diverse state that global climate models (GCMs) have shown to be vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate [20,21]
For any given combination of climate model and SDM algorithm (e.g., GFDL and generalized additive models (GAM), Fig. 1), the frequency of no-analog grid cells increased with the number of grouping levels considered
Summary
Many species may adapt by shifting their ranges independently of other species [1,2]. This differential movement is evidenced by the existence of major North American and European plant and animal assemblages with no modern analogs as recently as 10,000 BP [3,4,5]. Even within the last century, significant changes in community composition have been attributed to climate change [6,7] Such changes will likely become more extreme because warming is predicted to escalate for at least the 40 yr [8], potentially resulting in novel combinations of species. Realizing the need to understand the possibility of unexpected responses resulting from changes in species cooccurrence led us to identify no-analog future communities by developing a systematic quantification of potential climate-induced community changes for California’s terrestrial breeding birds
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
