Abstract
We established the statistical relationships between seasonal weather variables and average annual wheat yield (Hard Red Spring and Durum wheat: Triticum spp.) for the period of 1979–2016 for 296 rural municipalities (RMs) throughout six soil zones comprising the arable agricultural zone of Saskatchewan, Canada. Controlling climate variables were identified through Pearson’s product moment correlation analysis and used in stepwise regression to predict wheat yields in each RM. This analysis provided predictive regression equations and summary statistics at a fine spatial resolution, explaining up to 75% of the annual variance of wheat yield, in order to re-evaluate the climate factor rating in the arable land productivity model for the Saskatchewan Assessment and Management Agency (SAMA). Historical climate data (1885–2016) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections for the growing season (May–August) were also examined to put current climatic trends into longer-term perspective, as well as develop a better understanding of possible future climatic impacts on wheat yield in Saskatchewan. Historical trends demonstrate a decrease in maximum temperature and an increase in minimum temperature and precipitation throughout all soil zones. RCM projections also show a potential increase in temperatures and total precipitation by 5 °C and 10%, respectively. We recommended against a modification of the climate factor rating at this time because (1) any increase in wheat yield could not be attributed directly to the weather variables with the strongest trends, and (2) climate and wheat yield are changing more or less consistently across the zone of arable land, and one soil zone is not becoming more productive than another.
Highlights
Saskatchewan, one of the Canadian Prairie provinces, has approximately 42% of Canada’s cropland [1]
We examined recent climate changes and the statistical relationship between weather variables and wheat yield, in contrast to research on the numerical simulation and prediction of crop yields
Because climate and wheat yield are changing more or less consistently throughout all soil zones within Saskatchewan’s arable agricultural landscape, modifying the climate factor ratings in one area compared to another is not warranted at this time
Summary
Saskatchewan, one of the Canadian Prairie provinces, has approximately 42% of Canada’s cropland [1]. More than half of Canadian farms are located within the Canadian Prairie provinces, where more than 32,000 farms seed and produce wheat in Saskatchewan alone [1]. In 2016, wheat exports of approximately $3 million CAD represented two of the top ten exports for Saskatchewan [2]. This area is vulnerable to a variable hydroclimate and the resulting year-to-year variation of differences in agricultural production of crops and livestock is due to weather [3]. This study provides an evaluation of the influence of several climatic variables on wheat (Triticum spp.) yield over. The recognition of significant climate change in this region prompted a re-evaluation of the role of the climate in the assessment of the value of agricultural land
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