Abstract
Climate change and farmland environmental pollution have put greater pressure on the sustainability of agricultural production. Based on the provincial panel data of mainland China from 1978 to 2018, climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and sunshine hours are included into the input indicators, and agricultural non-point source pollution and carbon emissions are taken as undesirable outputs, the agricultural production efficiency (APE) under the dual constraints of climate change and the resource environment was estimated by the super slacks-based measure (SBM)-undesirable model. On the basis of the trajectory of the imbalanced spatiotemporal evolution of APE shown by Kernel density estimation and the standard deviational ellipse (SDE)–center of gravity (COG) transfer model, the spatial convergence model was used to test the convergence and differentiation characteristics of APE. Under the dual constraints, APE presents a “bimodal” distribution with a stable increase in fluctuation, but it is still at a generally low level and does not show polarization, among which the APE in the northeast region is the highest. The COG of APE tends to transfer towards the northeast, and the coverage of the SDE is shrinking, so the overall spatial pattern is characterized by a tendency of clustering towards the north in the north-south direction and a tendency of imbalance in the east-west direction. APE has significant spatial convergence, and there is a trend of “latecomer catching-up” in low-efficiency regions. The introduction of spatial correlation accelerates the convergence rate and shortens the convergence period. The convergence rate is the highest in the central and western regions, followed by that in the northeastern region, and the convergence rate is the lowest in the eastern region. In addition, the convergence rate in different time periods has a phase change. The process of improving the quality and efficiency of agricultural production requires enhancing the adaptability of climate change, balancing the carrying capacity of the resource environment, and strengthening inter-regional cooperation and linkage in the field of agriculture.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed in a special report released in 2018 that 1.5 ◦ C warming may be reached early [1], and that unless emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are significantly reduced in the coming decades, the 21st century global warming will exceed 1.5 ◦ C or even 2 ◦ C [2]
This paper studies the convergence of agricultural production efficiency (APE) changes under the dual constraints mainly by the β-convergence test. β-convergence of APE exists if the efficiency of the low APE
After measuring and calculating the APE of 30 provinces in China from 1978 to 2018 under the dual constraints of climate change and resource environment, the average values of each year were calculated in order to compare and analyze different regions (Figure 1)
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed in a special report released in 2018 that 1.5 ◦ C warming may be reached early [1], and that unless emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are significantly reduced in the coming decades, the 21st century global warming will exceed 1.5 ◦ C or even 2 ◦ C [2]. Climate change has a natural and strong correlation with agricultural production and exerts a direct and far-reaching impact on it. Meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, and wind speed in climate change have already affected the growth and development of crops, planting structure, and product quality to different degrees [3,4,5,6], and caused differences in the geographical and environmental adaptations of different crops growing. Significant differences in meteorology have led to complex and distinct regional adaptations in grain production, with different regions adapting differently to meteorological changes [10], and climate warming led to the expansion of suitable planting areas for northern crops to higher latitudes and high altitudes [11]. Under the constraints of climate change such as temperature and precipitation in different regions, crop planting systems show a differentiated regional distribution of wheat, maize, rice, etc., and the planting maturity system has undergone an evolutionary distribution of three crops a year to one crop a year from south to north
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