Rapid Weight Change Over Time Is a Risk Factor for Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Predialysis Chronic Kidney Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Both obesity and being underweight are risk factors for adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. However, the effects of longitudinal weight changes on patients with predialysis CKD have not yet been studied. In this study, we analyzed the effects of weight change over time on the adverse outcomes in predialysis CKD population. Longitudinal data from a multicenter prospective cohort study (KNOW-CKD) were analyzed. In a total of 2,022 patients, the percent weight change per year were calculated using regression analysis and the study subjects were classified into five categories: group 1, ≤ -5%/year; group 2, -5< to≤ -2.5%/year; group 3, -2.5< to <2.5%/year; group 4, 2.5≤ < 5%/year; and group 5, ≥5%/year. The incidences of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and the composite outcome of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death were calculated in each group and compared to group 3 as reference. During a median 4.4years of follow-up, 414 ESRD, and 188 composite of CVD and mortality events occurred. Both weight gain and loss were independent risk factors for adverse outcomes. There was a U-shaped correlation between the degree of longitudinal weight change and ESRD (hazard ratio 3.61, 2.15, 1.86 and 3.66, for group 1, 2, 4 and 5, respectively) and composite of CVD and death (hazard ratio 2.92, 2.15, 1.73 and 2.54, respectively), when compared to the reference group 3. The U-shape correlation was most prominent in the subgroup of estimated glomerular filtration rate <45mL/min/1.73m2. Both rapid weight gain and weight loss are associated with high risk of adverse outcomes, particularly in the advanced CKD.