Abstract
Oenothera drummondii is a coastal dunes plant species from the North American continent that has affected the natural structure and dynamics of Spanish, Israeli, and Chinese shores as an invasive species. In South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and France, it is reported as a naturalized species. Ecological niche and species distribution modeling has been widely used as a tool to find potential global invasions and assess invasion effects. Herein, we modeled the ecological niche and the potential distribution of Oenothera drummondii, using the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, bioclimatic variables and occurrence records that have been validated in their native and non-native distribution. In the native area, the temperature and precipitation values are higher compared to non-native zones, where the low temperatures and the absence of humidity are the main climatic limitations for the species. In the environmental space, new distribution areas were identified and a partial overlap between the native and non-native niches detected. This suggests that climate matching is not occurring for the species, and that the potential invasion of coastal dune areas seems to be higher than previously observed. Therefore, new potential invasion areas, where the species is not yet distributed, were also identified. Our predictions could be used to establish ecosystem management measures to mitigate the invasion of Oenothera drummondii, helping to prevent possible negative impacts on fragile coastal ecosystems.
Highlights
Localities outside of the native area have been recorded on the coast of 21 regions in 10 countries (Egypt, Israel, South Africa, Spain, China, Morocco, Peru, Australia, New Zealand, and France) on the five continents
The largest number of records outside the native range is located in Australia (245) and Israel (150)
The native distribution areas present higher temperature and precipitation values compared to non-native ones, where low temperatures and the absence of humidity seem to limit the distribution of the species
Summary
Invasive species are considered as a global driver of change that generates important ecological disturbances, threatening native biodiversity [1] and causing significant ecological and economic repercussions [2,3,4] These threats are related to the ability of this type of species to alter ecosystem functions and processes as a result of increasing nutrient input, altering nutrient cycling or affecting water balance, and by modifying the vegetation community composition and structure [5,6,7,8]. These changes have repercussions on health, and can generate economic losses [9,10,11]. The problem of species invasion in these ecosystems is of high-priority due to the possibility of losing many threatened, endemic or highly specialized flora and fauna, which are tolerant to the extreme conditions such as salt spray, burial by sand, drought, low nutrient availability and occasional storms [16]
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