Range Dynamics of Barren-Ground Caribou Implied by Historical Population Cycles and Logistic Growth

Thermal constraints to population growth of bacterial-feeding nematodes

Unlike all other members of the deer family, subpopulations of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) are typically sine-cyclic. We used Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank competing population dynamics models for 11 North American barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Nine of these subpopulations were best described as sine-cyclic with periods ranging from a minimum of 26 years (Bluenose-East and Porcupine) to a maximum of 55 years (Western Arctic); and amplitudes ranging from a minimum of 8 455 (Cape Bathurst) to a maximum of 327 432 (George River). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated by the sine cycle models showed good correspondence to published subpopulation estimates of abundance for all nine sine-cyclic subpopulations (r = 0.978; p < 0.001). Lack of demographic closure (migration between subpopulations) was evident in both of the subpopulations that were not identified as sine-cyclic. Barren-ground caribou subpopulation amplitudes were mostly determined by subpopulation total range size and summer range productivity (R2 = 0.962; p < 0.001) and subpopulation periods were mostly determined by amplitude, total range productivity, and land surface temperature (R2 = 0.950; p < 0.001). Time series estimates of subpopulation abundance generated from the respective environmental regression models were highly correlated (r = 0.964; p < 0.001) to the published subpopulation estimates of abundance for the set of 9 sine-cyclic subpopulations. Extended (> 3 generations) subpopulation declines are a natural feature of cyclic barren-ground caribou subpopulations. Trends in species abundance based on pooled assemblages of asynchronous cyclic subpopulations should be interpreted with caution.

The primary advantage of the standing age distribution of a population is that it can be sampled. Analysis of the age frequencies for estimates of survival rates and determinations of population status by life table construction depend heavily on assumption that require additional data to evaluate. The analysis of age structures for the George River (Messier et al., 1988) and Beverly (Thomas and Barry, 1990a,b) caribou herd was reviewed. An alternativ method of estimating age specific survival rates was explored. The dependence of the life tables produced by the analysis of Messier et al. (1988) and Thomas and Barry (1990a,b) on tenuous and untestable assumptions regarding population growth rate over the life span of the oldest animals, stability of the standing age distribution, and constancy of life table parameters was emphasized. Although the life tables produced by Messier et al. (1988) for the George River herd and Thomas and Barry (1990a,b) for the Beverly herd are probably the best available for barren-ground caribou, they should be used with caution, particularly for management decisions.

For thousands of years Ɂedacho Kué (Artillery Lake, Northwest Territories) has been a key water crossing site for barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus). Human disturbance of barren-ground caribou habitat in northern Canada has emerged as an important focus of study in the last decade; particularly in the Bathurst range of the Northwest Territories where caribou populations have declined by more than 95% since the 1980s. Guided by local Indigenous leaders and Elders, a collaborative research project was developed with the Dënesǫ́łıné people of Łutsël K’e Dëne First Nation (2012 – 14). This paper describes linkages between knowledge derived from Dënesǫ́łıné oral history and quantitative dendroecological analysis of trample scars on black spruce (Picea mariana) root samples collected at Ɂedacho Kué to provide a better understanding of caribou use at this location. Findings from oral histories and dendroecology analysis were consistent with one another and with previous dendroecology study in the region, although some discrepancies were detected in data from 1995 – 2006 that require further study to elucidate. Key findings include relatively low caribou use at Ɂedacho Kué during the 1930s and late 1960s, with use increasing into the 1970s and peaking in the late 1980s, as well as Elder and hunter reports of no caribou in some years between 2005 and 2012. This work addresses a gap in scientific data about barren-ground caribou movements at Ɂedacho Kué prior to satellite collar use in 1996 and corroborates previously documented oral histories about the enduring value of Ɂedacho Kué as critical habitat to barren-ground caribou. Given the drastic decline of the Bathurst caribou over the last two decades, more research is needed to understand movements and their relationship to population dynamics. In this context, the research approach described in this paper could be used as an example of how to meaningfully bring together place-based Indigenous knowledge and science in addressing an urgent issue of Arctic sustainability.

Sustaining arctic/subarctic ecosystems and the livelihoods of northern Indigenous peoples is an immense challenge amid increasing resource development. The paper describes a "tragedy of open access" occurring in Canada's north as governments open up new areas of sensitive barren-ground caribou habitat to mineral resource development. Once numbering in the millions, barren-ground caribou populations (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus/Rangifer tarandus granti) have declined over 70% in northern Canada over the last two decades in a cycle well understood by northern Indigenous peoples and scientists. However, as some herds reach critically low population levels, the impacts of human disturbance have become a major focus of debate in the north and elsewhere. A growing body of science and traditional knowledge research points to the adverse impacts of resource development; however, management efforts have been almost exclusively focused on controlling the subsistence harvest of northern Indigenous peoples. These efforts to control Indigenous harvesting parallel management practices during previous periods of caribou population decline (for example, 1950s) during which time governments also lacked evidence and appeared motivated by other values and interests in northern lands and resources. As mineral resource development advances in northern Canada and elsewhere, addressing this "science-policy gap" problem is critical to the sustainability of both caribou and people.

Large-scale climate oscillations may contribute to the observed dramatic fluctuations and regional synchrony in Rangifer abundance. Here, we test this hypothesis using long-term abundance and physical condition datasets to investigate the relationships between broad climate patterns, summer-range quality, and population dynamics in three barren-ground caribou herds in northern Canada. We found that positive intensities of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the summer were associated with warmer temperatures, improved growing conditions for vegetation, and better body condition of caribou. Over this same period, the body condition of female caribou was positively related to fecundity. We further identified that population trajectories of caribou herds followed the direction of the AO: herds increased under positive AO intensity, and decreased under negative AO intensity. Our findings suggest that the AO influences barren-ground caribou population dynamics through effects on summer-range quality, caribou physical condition, and herd productivity.

Context Understanding population dynamics of invasive species is crucial for the development of management strategies. Feral horses (Equus caballus) are a growing problem in the Tuan–Toolara State Forest (TTSF), a coniferous plantation in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Aim The population dynamics of the TTSF feral horses was not known. Therefore, the study was designed to characterise the major vital parameters of this population and, using these data, develop a long-term management plan. Methods The study was conducted over 3 years (2011–14) involving 522 individually identified horses. Foaling rates were used to calculate fecundity. Body fat distribution was estimated using body condition score (BCS), which reflects the nutritional, metabolic and general health of individual animals. Multi state mark–capture population models were used to estimate age-specific survival, and the Leslie age-structured projection matrix model was used to determine the annual rate at which the population increased. Key results The mean annual fecundity was low (0.23 ± 0.07 s.d.). The mean BCS of the population was mid-range (2.55 ± 0.51 s.d.) with adult females having lower scores than other age and gender groups. Survival estimates were consistently high (0.92–0.95) across all age groups. The average annual finite rate of population increase (λ) for the 3 years of the study was 1.09. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the population growth rate was almost seven times more sensitive to changes in adult survival compared with juvenile survival, and almost twice as sensitive to changes in fecundity. Key conclusions Population dynamics of the TTSF feral horses were comparable to other feral horse populations similarly challenged by environmental nutritional limitations. Implications Defining population dynamics of the TTSF feral horses permits the formulation of management goals that can be audited and adapted as required. The most effective strategy for controlling population growth in the TTSF would involve the continuing removal of substantial numbers of adult females or manipulation of survival and/or fecundity. As selective removal will likely alter the adult sex ratio and age structure of the population, ongoing assessment is necessary to minimise adverse welfare outcomes.

Feral horses (Equus caballus) in Australia are a growing problem despite implementation of management strategies. The increasing number of feral horses within the Tuan and Toolara State Forest (TTSF), a coniferous plantation on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, and particularly near major public roads, has been recognised as a problem in the last decade. Desensitised to road traffic, horses are a serious distraction for motorists, and have potential to cause serious animal-vehicle accidents.The primary objective of the study was to characterise the essential demographics of the TTSF feral horses, so that the most suitable methods for long-term population management could be determined. The study was conducted from 2012 – 2014 and determined social structure, reproductive performance and survival, and population growth rate. The estimation of population distribution, abundance and density together with assessment of habitat use and home range size were also addressed.The studied population did not show significant annual variation in demographics, which is consistent with measurements in other unmanaged feral horse populations in Australia and abroad. The overall size and age composition of social groups remained stable during the study period. The average harem size was estimated as 4.95 (95%CI 4.53-5.41), and usually consisted of 1 stallion, 2 - 3 adult females, and 2 immature offspring (≤ 3 years of age). Males not associated with harems consisted of adult (≥ 3 years old) and sub-adult (2 years old) individuals, either forming groups of 2 – 6 or living by themselves. The population showed a stable age distribution, with adult horses constituting the largest group (68%; n = 247). The sex ratio of adult female to male horses was nearly equal (0.99:1.00).The mean annual fecundity was 0.23 ± 0.07 SD and was comparable to those obtained for other feral horse populations where the environment imposed nutritional limitations. Adult females were observed to foal on average every second year. The overall nutritional status of the population expressed as body condition score (BCS; 0 - 5) was 2.55 ± 0.51 SD with adult females having poorer scores than other age and gender groups. Survival estimates were consistently high (0.92 – 0.95) across all age groups. The average annual finite rate of population increase (λ) for the three years of the study was 1.088 which was lower than the maximum reported for populations living in the most favourable conditions. Elasticity analysis demonstrated that the TTSF population growth rate was almost seven times more sensitive to changes in adult survival compared with juvenile survival, and almost twice more sensitive than changes in fecundity.Assessment of the population distribution based on a strip transect survey using horse dung on forest tracks indicated that the majority of the forestry was occupied by horses, with the highest population density being located in the central region of the plantation. Abundance and density of horses were estimated by distance line transect survey of dung counts, dung disappearance rate of 444 (± 150.7 SD) days and individual defecation rates of 7.97 (± 8.74 SD) over 24 hours. The analysis indicated that the TTSF was occupied by 1321 horses (95%CI 940 - 1965), which corresponded to a density of 1.8 horses/km2.Habitat use quantified by visual detection of horses, dung counts, and Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking, identified a preference for open habitats of young pine forest and harvested areas, and avoidance of closed canopy habitats of juvenile and mature pine. Home range size determined by GPS tracking was greater than that measured by direct observation (mean ± SD; 16.90 ± 9.11 km2 and 6.71 ± 3.30 km2 respectively). All harems were loyal to their home ranges; harem members occupied one core area more than other parts of their range, and home ranges highly overlapped.The findings of this thesis confirm that there is a gradual increase in feral horse distribution and population size within the TTSF. It is evident that the design and implementation of a program to manage feral horses in the TTSF will need to consider a combination of approaches, which will need to satisfy a number of criteria including efficacy, cost effectiveness, occupational safety, environmental impacts and animal welfare. Continued monitoring of the population growth is essential to measure the effectiveness of chosen management strategies.

Mitigating the borders that exist between scientific cultures can be a difficult task. The purpose of this paper is to look at the differences and similarities that occur in language use when two scientific cultures communicate in the same forum on a topic of mutual concern. The results provide an opportunity to share knowledge of an Indigenous culture that relies on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus) as a way of life in Northern Canada. Analysis of language use led to the identification of framework categories that can be used to increase awareness in different perspectives of science knowledge. Reconceptualization of the narratives presented can be used to calm the turbulence that exists between Indigenous People and other cultures and provides an opportunity for science educators to incorporate Indigenous ways of knowing into the classroom. It was found that autobiographical approaches in particular could provide an opening for cultural borders to be lessened.

Severe granulomatous nephritis caused by Brucella suis biotype 4 was found in a barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) from Northwest Territories, Canada. A review of the distribution of human and animal cases of brucellosis in northern Canada indicated that B. suis biotype 4 is distributed widely and is probably enzootic in most Canadian caribou herds.

Prevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii was determined in 147 barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) from 5 herds in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, northern Canada, by the modified agglutination test (MAT). In the mainland herds (Bluenose, Bathurst, and Beverly), antibodies were found in 43 (37%) of 117 caribou, and MAT titers were 1:25 in 10, 1:50 in 24, and 1:500 in 9. In the island herds, only 1 (4.3%) of 23 animals sampled from the North Baffin Island herd was positive (titer = 1:25) and no antibodies were detected in 7 caribou from the Dolphin and Union herd. The high prevalence of antibodies to T. gondii in the mainland caribou herds indicates that caribou meat may contain viable T. gondii.

Reproductive tracts were collected from 532 female caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in northern Canada over a [Formula: see text]-year period. Ovaries were weighed and scrutinized by gross and histological techniques. Ovaries of nulliparous and nongravid, parous cows responded to follicular fluctuations by increasing in weight in summer and declining in winter. Weights of ovaries from calves, yearlings, and 2 year olds overlapped extensively. Formation of corpora lutea of pregnancy more than doubled ovary weight. During gestation ovary weight declined and then partially recovered; it increased with age in pregnant cows. The number and size of follicles [Formula: see text] diameter increased with age until puberty, reaching greatest development just before the autumn rut. After puberty the seasonal incidence of such follicles remained stable except during gestation, when it declined. Corpora lutea of pregnancy regressed to form apparently permanent scars composed of vascular and connective tissue remnants. Secondary corpora lutea developed in 35% of the cows at or before conception and upon regression produced scars which were not permanent. Regressing corpora lutea of estrus also disappeared into the ovarian stroma, apparently within 1 year. In individual cows one ovary, selected at random, dominated in the production of ova and corpora lutea.

A comparison of indigenous and scientific forms of wildlife data gathering and conservation/management reveals similarities and differences. The two systems are needed to effectively manage wildlife in northern Canada, particularly migratory, trans-boundary species. The Beverly and Kaminuriak Caribou Management Board brought multi-jurisdictional caribou users and managers together to co-manage two large herds of caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlan-dicus). The advisory Board's principal duties and responsibilities are communication and to maintain the two herds at population levels that will meet user needs. Goals, objectives, and principles are set out in a management plan. Board activities are structured in 15 action plans under major categories of communication, supply of caribou, use of caribou, and habitat. Board successes are attributed to use of the plan to guide actions; to the Chairmen and vice-Chairmen; to the quality of founding members and their continuity; to effective vehicles of communication such as a newspaper, radio, video, and community meetings; to a spirit of cooperation; and to high caribou numbers because of high productivity combined with poor accessibility. Problem areas include technical limitations, members' decreasing powers and increasing turnover, inadequate communication of Board objectives and activities within the communities, and accountability. Future challenges include the management of caribou shortages, obtaining better herd data, and the need for more intensive management as user populations grow.

BackgroundAnimals of many different species, trophic levels, and life history strategies migrate, and the improvement of animal tracking technology allows ecologists to collect increasing amounts of detailed data on these movements. Understanding when animals migrate is important for managing their populations, but is still difficult despite modelling advancements.MethodsWe designed a model that parametrically estimates the timing of migration from animal tracking data. Our model identifies the beginning and end of migratory movements as signaled by change-points in step length and turning angle distributions. To this end, we can also use the model to estimate how an animal’s movement changes when it begins migrating. In addition to a thorough simulation analysis, we tested our model on three datasets: migratory ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) in the Great Plains, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in northern Canada, and non-migratory brown bears (Ursus arctos) from the Canadian Arctic.ResultsOur simulation analysis suggests that our model is most useful for datasets where an increase in movement speed or directional autocorrelation is clearly detectable. We estimated the beginning and end of migration in caribou and hawks to the nearest day, while confirming a lack of migratory behaviour in the brown bears. In addition to estimating when caribou and ferruginous hawks migrated, our model also identified differences in how they migrated; ferruginous hawks achieved efficient migrations by drastically increasing their movement rates while caribou migration was achieved through significant increases in directional persistence.ConclusionsOur approach is applicable to many animal movement studies and includes parameters that can facilitate comparison between different species or datasets. We hope that rigorous assessment of migration metrics will aid understanding of both how and why animals move.

The Beverly herd was one of the first large migratory herds of barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) defined in northern Canada on the basis of annual return of breeding females to traditional calving grounds near Beverly Lake in Nunavut. In 1994, herd size was estimated at 276 000 ± 106 600 (SE) adult caribou, but monitoring was minimal from 1994 to 2007. The next calving ground survey in 2002 revealed that caribou densities had dropped by more than half since 1994; annual surveys following from 2007 to 2009 demonstrated an extreme decline in numbers of calving cows, and by 2011, no newborn calves were seen there. We examine two possible explanations for the declining use of the traditional Beverly calving grounds from 1994 until their abandonment by 2011. One explanation is that a true numerical decline in herd size occurred, driven in at least the later stages by low cow survival and poor calf productivity, which led the remaining Beverly cows to switch to the neighbouring Ahiak calving ground 250 km to the north in 2007 – 09 and join that herd. An alternative explanation is that the decline on the traditional Beverly calving grounds was largely due to a distributional shift to the north of the Beverly herd that may have begun in the mid-1990s. We suggest that the former explanation is the more likely and that the Beverly herd no longer exists as a distinct herd. We acknowledge that gaps in monitoring of Beverly and Ahiak caribou hamper definitive evaluation of the Beverly herd’s fate. The large size sometimes achieved by barren-ground caribou herds is not a guarantee of persistence; monitoring shortfalls may hamper management actions to address declines.