Rainfall-induced landslide movements using linear regression analysis along national highway 1D (Jammu and Kashmir, India)

Abstract

Rainfall is recognized as one of the main factors that influence the triggering of landslides in mountainous regions. The National Highway 1D from Sonamarg to Kargil is located in the elevated Greater-Himalaya mountainous region of Jammu and Kashmir, constantly suffering from landslides associated with rainfall events. Under this framework, a statistical study was conducted to study a relationship between landslide and rainfall events along the tough terrain of NH 1D. Out of the 317 landslides, however, only 213 landslides showed significant positive correlation with rainfall events. Analysis of the rainfall datasets from 1992 to 2016 showed the erratic and uneven rainfall distribution along the National Highway 1D. The results of the general linear regression model showed that the landslide occurrence is mainly explained by rainfall increase except at a certain point of time, where landslide occurrence seems to be related to other factors as well. The results of the present study depicted that around 67.19% of studied landslide have a direct link with seasonal rainfall events. In the present study, majority of the landslides were found to occur at Zojila pass, Gumri, and Pandras. This stretch is characterized by weak lithology, high altitude, high drainage and lineament density as compared to the other areas from Sonmarg to Kargil. Landslides have socio-economic and environmental consequences along the National Highway 1D. Thus, there is an immediate need to mitigate the landslide hazard along the National Highway 1D.