Abstract
Adverse weather conditions during parental care may have direct consequences for offspring production, but longer-term effects on juvenile and parental survival are less well known. We used long-term data on reproductive output, recruitment, and parental survival in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate the effects of rainfall during parental care on fledging success, recruitment success (juvenile survival), and parental survival, and how these effects related to nestling age, breeding time, habitat quality, and parental nest visitation rates. While accounting for effects of temperature, fledging success was negatively related to rainfall (days > 10 mm) in the second half of the nestling period, with the magnitude of this effect being greater for breeding attempts early in the season. Recruitment success was, however, more sensitive to the number of rain days in the first half of the nestling period. Rainfall effects on parental survival differed between the sexes; males were more sensitive to rain during the nestling period than females. We demonstrate a probable mechanism driving the rainfall effects on reproductive output: Parental nest visitation rates decline with increasing amounts of daily rainfall, with this effect becoming stronger after consecutive rain days. Our study shows that rain during the nestling stage not only relates to fledging success but also has longer-term effects on recruitment and subsequent parental survival. Thus, if we want to understand or predict population responses to future climate change, we need to consider the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns in addition to temperature, and how these will affect target species' vital rates.
Highlights
The recent focus on the response of organisms’ phenologies to increasing spring temperatures (Crick and Sparks 1999; Sparks 1999; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Lehikoinen et al 2004; Visser et al 2004; Chambers et al 2013) has largely been because of expected temperature-associated changes in reproductive output and population growth rates
Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Rainfall during the nestling period reduced fledging success, and recruitment success and apparent male parental survival (Fig. 1), there was no clear effect on female parental survival
Summary
The recent focus on the response of organisms’ phenologies to increasing spring temperatures (Crick and Sparks 1999; Sparks 1999; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Lehikoinen et al 2004; Visser et al 2004; Chambers et al 2013) has largely been because of expected temperature-associated changes in reproductive output and population growth rates (exemplified by studies on birds: Visser et al 1998; Both et al 2006; Møller et al 2008; but see Reed et al 2013). Predicted changes in rainfall patterns (IPCC 2013) may have potential consequences for phenology through delays in breeding in wet springs (Senapathi et al 2011), or more directly for reproductive output (Siikam€aki 1996; Franklin et al 2000; Arlettaz et al 2010). Predictions of how populations respond to on-going climate change will require information on relationships between rainfall and vital rates for many species One such potential group of species are insectivorous birds breeding in northern temperate regions, where mean precipitation and extreme precipitation events are a 2014 The Authors.
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