Abstract
Do emotions affect the decision between change and the status quo? We exploit exogenous variation in emotions caused by rain and analyze data on more than 870,000 municipal vote outcomes in Switzerland to address this question. The empirical tests are based on administrative ballot outcomes and individual postvote survey data. We find that rain decreases the share of votes for political change. Our robustness checks suggest that this finding is not driven by changes in the composition of the electorate and changes in information acquisition. In addition, we provide evidence that rain might have altered the outcome of several high-stake votes. We discuss the psychological mechanism and document that rain reduces the willingness to take risks, a pattern that is consistent with the observed reduction in the support for change.
Highlights
Many decisions involve the choice between keeping the status quo or opting for change
We examine the effect of rain on political decisions with the following econometric model using municipal data: Yjp = ηj + δp + α Rainjp + Xjpβ + εjp, 7This rain variable provides us with a measure of rain for a time frame that is most relevant to voters
We explore whether voters with access to postal voting might be affected by rain before the voting weekend
Summary
Many decisions involve the choice between keeping the status quo or opting for change. About the effect of emotions on the tendency to keep the status quo. This is surprising in light of the recent contributions in economics which demonstrate the impact of emotions on human decision-making (Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, 2003; Ifcher and Zarghamee, 2011; Cohn et al, 2015; Callen et al, 2014; Haushofer and Fehr, 2014; Meier, 2019).. We find that rain on a voting weekend decreases support for changing the status quo. A simple simulation indicates that this rain effect potentially swayed several vote outcomes
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
