Abstract
Disability declined in lower levels of impairment during the late 20th century. However, it is unclear whether ADL disability also declined, or whether it did so across race. In this study, we examine cohorts entering later life between 1984 and 1999, by race, to understand changing ADL disability. We used latent class methods to model trajectories of ADL disability and subsequent mortality in the National Long-Term Care Survey among cohorts entering older adulthood (ages 65-69) between 1984 and 1999. We examined patterns by race, focusing on chronic condition profiles. White cohorts experienced consistent declines in ADL disability but Blacks saw little improvement with some evidence for increased disability. Stroke, diabetes, and heart attack were predominant in predicting disability among Blacks. Declining disability trends were only observed consistently among Whites, suggesting previous and future disability trends and their underlying causes should be examined by race.
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