Abstract
Scientifically forecasting gross domestic expenditure devoted to research and development (GERD) and the ratio of GERD to GDP in the future is an important task in formulating long-term S&T development policies in China. For quite a long time, China mainly adopted expert opinion based on qualitative analysis to proceed to forecast. To make the forecasting more scientific and reliable, this paper puts forward a quantitative forecast method and model, which is already used in the estimation of the amounts of R&D activity in China over the next 15 years. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.
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