Abstract
East African riparian countries have debated sharing Nile River water for centuries. To define a reasonable allocation of water to each country, the United Nations’ Watercourse Convention could be a key legal instrument. However, its applicability has been questioned given its overly generalized guidance and non-quantifiable factors. This study identified and evaluated appropriate indicators that best describe reasonable and equitable principles and factors detailed under Article 6 of the convention in order to allocate Nile River water among the states. Potential indicators (n = 75) were defined based on multiple sources that can address conflicting interests specific to this basin context. A questionnaire based on these indicators was developed and distributed to 215 prominent experts from five professional groups on five continents. To analyze the presence of agreements or disagreements within and outside of the basin, as well as differences across expert groups, a k-mean clustering analysis and statistical tests (ANOVA and t-test) were employed. The results imply agreement on 75% of the proposed indicators by all experts across all continents. However, a significant difference in identifying the importance and relevance of many indicators between experts from Egypt and other countries was evident. This study thus demonstrates how the UN watercourse convention principles can be quantified and applied to transboundary water allocation, and ideally lead to informed discourse between basin countries in conflict.
Highlights
Conflicts over transboundary river sharing due to increases in demand from growing populations and urbanization to produce food and energy are rapidly growing in many basins [1]
The impact of climate change is threatening the supply availability of water resources to a significant degree in many locations [2,3]. This imbalance of demand and supply can lead to water insecurity and drive riparian states to engage in unilateral development rather than follow shared water principles, when no prior agreements exist
This study identified and evaluated appropriate indicators for factors mentioned in the Uses of International Watercourses (UNWC) to allocate the Nile River in an equitable and reasonable manner among watercourse states
Summary
Conflicts over transboundary river sharing due to increases in demand from growing populations and urbanization to produce food and energy are rapidly growing in many basins [1]. The impact of climate change is threatening the supply availability of water resources to a significant degree in many locations [2,3] This imbalance of demand and supply can lead to water insecurity and drive riparian states to engage in unilateral development rather than follow shared water principles, when no prior agreements exist. As countries started scrambling to meet their ever-increasing water demand, international institutions were required to develop water laws to govern transboundary rivers [19]. In 1966, the International Law Association (ILA), a scholarly but nonauthoritative institution, adopted this principle into the Helsinki rule This guiding rule became one of the fundamental legal instruments for managing transboundary rivers. Article 4 of the rule outlines 11 factors necessary for implementing the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization of international rivers
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