Quantifying the known unknowns: estimating maximum intrinsic rate of population increase in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract Sensitivity to overfishing is often estimated using simple models that depend upon life history parameters, especially for species lacking detailed biological information. Yet, there has been little exploration of how uncertainty in life history parameters can influence demographic parameter estimates and therefore fisheries management options. We estimate the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase (rmax) for ten coastal carcharhiniform shark populations using an unstructured life history model that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in life history parameters. We evaluate how the two directly estimated parameters, age at maturity αmat and annual reproductive output b, most influenced rmax estimates. Uncertainty in age at maturity values was low, but resulted in moderate uncertainty in rmax estimates. The model was sensitive to uncertainty in annual reproductive output for the least fecund species with fewer than 5 female offspring per year, which is not unusual for large elasmobranchs, marine mammals, and seabirds. Managers and policy makers should be careful to restrict mortality on species with very low annual reproductive output <2 females per year. We recommend elasmobranch biologists to measure frequency distributions of litter sizes (rather than just a range) as well as improving estimates of natural mortality of data-poor elasmobranchs.