Quantifying the automated vehicle safety performance: A scoping review of the literature, evaluation of methods, and directions for future research

Abstract

Vehicle automation safety must be evaluated not only for market success but also for more informed decision-making about Automated Vehicles' (AVs) deployment and supporting policies and regulations to govern AVs’ unintended consequences. This study is designed to identify the AV safety quantification studies, evaluate the quantification approaches used in the literature, and uncover the gaps and challenges in AV safety evaluation. We employed a scoping review methodology to identify the approaches used in the literature to quantify AV safety. After screening and reviewing the literature, six approaches were identified: target crash population, traffic simulation, driving simulator, road test data analysis, system failure risk assessment, and safety effectiveness estimation. We ran two evaluations on the identified approaches. First, we investigated each approach in terms of its input (required data, assumptions, etc.), output (safety evaluation metrics), and application (to estimate AVs' safety implications at the vehicle, transportation system, and society levels). Second, we qualitatively compared them in terms of three criteria: availability of input data, suitability for evaluating different automation levels, and reliability of estimations. This review identifies four challenges in AV safety evaluation: (a) shortcomings in AV safety evaluation approaches, (b) uncertainties in AV implementations and their impacts on AV safety, (c) potential riskier behavior of AV passengers as well as other road users, and (d) emerging safety issues related to AV implementations. This review is expected to help researchers and rulemakers to choose the most appropriate quantification method based on their goals and study limitations. Future research is required to address the identified challenges in AV safety evaluation.