Abstract
The interactions between climate change and vegetation have a significant impact on the dynamics of the global carbon cycle. Based on the observed meteorological data from 1961 to 2013 and the temperature and precipitation data simulated by various climate models (simulations phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project dataset), this paper analyzes the temperature and precipitation changes of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and finds that they are a similar trend, that is, the temperature presents a significant upward trend (R2 = 0.49, p < 0.01), and the variation trend of precipitation is not significant (R2 = 0.01). Specifically, based on observed meteorological data, the annual mean temperature increased significantly and the area of increasing temperature accounted for 99.94% of the total region (p < 0.05); however, there was no significant change in annual precipitation. Ecological indicators (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); enhanced vegetation index (EVI); leaf area index (LAI); gross primary production (GPP); and net primary production (NPP)) of the YRB showed an increasing trend, and annual NDVI, annual EVI, LAI, annual total GPP and annual total NPP increased at respective rates of 0.002 yr−1, 0.001 yr−1, 0.07 m2m−2decade−1, 9 TgCyr−1yr−1, and 6 TgCyr−1yr−1, respectively. Correlation analysis between temperature/precipitation and NDVI/EVI/LAI/GPP/NPP was used to determine the relationships between climatic parameters and ecological indicators. Specifically, the temperature is significantly positively correlated with annual NDVI (R2 = 0.37, p < 0.05), with annual mean LAI (R2 = 0.35, p < 0.05) and with annual GPP (R2 = 0.37, p < 0.05). In addition, there is a moderate positive correlation between mean EVI and mean growing season air temperature (R2 = 0.24); annual mean air temperature is a moderate positive correlation with annual NPP (R2 = 0.28). Our findings confirm that temperature is more closely related to ecological factors than precipitation over the YRB in these decades.
Highlights
Climate change is indisputable and the interactions between climate change and terrestrial ecosystems have been enduring and accepted as one of the major issues in global change research
Global warming of 1.5 ◦C above pre-industrial levels (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) website: http://www.ipcc.ch/scripts/_session_template.php?page=_44ipcc.htm), and the average temperature over the global land surface increased by 0.85 ◦C from 1988 to 2011 (IPCC 5) which is consistent with the trend of climate change in China over the past 50 years, where the temperature has increased by up to 1.1 ◦C [2,3]
Changes in climate greatly affect the distribution of vegetation and the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and, vice versa, the ecological responses of terrestrial ecosystems may substantially accelerate climate change [4,5,6]
Summary
Climate change is indisputable and the interactions between climate change and terrestrial ecosystems have been enduring and accepted as one of the major issues in global change research. Especially temperature and precipitation, are the vital factors that affect the development and ranges of ecosystems [1]. Changes in climate greatly affect the distribution of vegetation and the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems and, vice versa, the ecological responses of terrestrial ecosystems may substantially accelerate climate change [4,5,6]. As the main component of terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation is one of the main indicators of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and plays a vital role in the dynamic balance of terrestrial carbon. Vegetation is of great significance for both the greenhouse effect and mitigating the adverse effects of global warming [6,7,8,9]
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