Abstract
This paper presents the results of wind wave forecasts for the Black Sea. Three different versions utilized were utilized: the WAVEWATCH III model with GFS 0.25 forcing on a regular grid, the WAVEWATCH III model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on a regular grid, and the SWAN model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on an unstructured grid. AltiKa satellite altimeter data were used to assess the quality of wind and wave forecasts for the period from 1 April to 31 December 2017. Wave height and wind speed forecast data were obtained with a lead time of up to 72 h. The presented models provide an adequate forecast in terms of modern wave modeling (a correlation coefficient of 0.8–0.9 and an RMSE of 0.25–0.3 m) when all statistics were analyzed. A clear improvement in the wave forecast quality with the high-resolution wind forecast COSMO-RU07 was not registered. The bias error did not exceed 0.5 m in an SWH range from 0 to 3 m. However, the bias sharply increased to −2 or −3 m for an SWH range of 3–4 m. Wave forecast quality assessments were conducted for several storm cases.
Highlights
Information regarding wind waves in the sea is the most requested parameter for many industries
The wind speed according to Global Forecasting System (GFS) and Consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO)-RU07 data was compared with satellite data
According to the R correlation coefficient, version WW3-COSMO is slightly better than other versions for the lead times of 3–39 h, but for the lead times 51–63 h, WW3-GFS is better again
Summary
Information regarding wind waves in the sea is the most requested parameter for many industries. Active oil and mineral field exploration and the development of transport and tourism occur in this region, according to reports of the International Centre for Black. The Black Sea is an area of intensive navigation. It has many uses, including tourist and cultural activities, marine fishing, cargo transport, and rescue operations, to name a few. The study of the hydrometeorological conditions of the Black Sea is relevant due to the active economic development of this region. Wind wave conditions are limiting factors for economic activity and development of infrastructure in the coastal zone. Storm waves can destroy infrastructure in coastal zones as well as offshore, cause economic damage, and can threaten human life
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