Abstract
BackgroundTo determine a direct measure of publication bias by determining subsequent full-paper publication (P) of studies reported in animal research abstracts presented at an international conference (A).MethodsWe selected 100 random (using a random-number generator) A from the 2008 Society of Critical Care Medicine Conference. Using a data collection form and study manual, we recorded methodology and result variables from A. We searched PubMed and EMBASE to June 2015, and DOAJ and Google Scholar to May 2017 to screen for subsequent P. Methodology and result variables were recorded from P to determine changes in reporting from A. Predictors of P were examined using Fisher’s Exact Test.Results62% (95% CI 52–71%) of studies described in A were subsequently P after a median 19 [IQR 9–33.3] months from conference presentation. Reporting of studies in A was of low quality: randomized 27% (the method of randomization and allocation concealment not described), blinded 0%, sample-size calculation stated 0%, specifying the primary outcome 26%, numbers given with denominators 6%, and stating number of animals used 47%. Only being an orally presented (vs. poster presented) A (14/16 vs. 48/84, p = 0.025) predicted P. Reporting of studies in P was of poor quality: randomized 39% (the method of randomization and allocation concealment not described), likely blinded 6%, primary outcome specified 5%, sample size calculation stated 0%, numbers given with denominators 34%, and number of animals used stated 56%. Changes in reporting from A to P occurred: from non-randomized to randomized 19%, from non-blinded to blinded 6%, from negative to positive outcomes 8%, from having to not having a stated primary outcome 16%, and from non-statistically to statistically significant findings 37%. Post-hoc, using publication data, P was predicted by having positive outcomes (published 62/62, unpublished 33/38; p = 0.003), or statistically significant results (published 58/62, unpublished 20/38; p < 0.001).ConclusionsOnly 62% (95% CI 52–71%) of animal research A are subsequently P; this was predicted by oral presentation of the A, finally having positive outcomes, and finally having statistically significant results. Publication bias is prevalent in critical care animal research.
Highlights
To determine a direct measure of publication bias by determining subsequent full-paper publication (P) of studies reported in animal research abstracts presented at an international conference (A)
Abstract review We reviewed 100 random published abstracts of animal research (AR) from the 2008 Society of Critical Care Medicine international conference [20]
Primary outcome 61 [61%] abstracts were subsequently published after a median 19 [IQR 9–33, range 0–68]
Summary
To determine a direct measure of publication bias by determining subsequent full-paper publication (P) of studies reported in animal research abstracts presented at an international conference (A). The animals used in unpublished AR that had negative findings were harmed with additional potential harm to humans, due to subsequent biomedical research and practice following false leads or safety data from the published AR [9]. Using statistical tools that examine small study bias (a larger effect size in small studies compared to larger studies), several AR reviews suggest PB occurs [10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]. Another recent study found AR suffers from excess significance bias, again indirectly suggesting PB [18]. To our knowledge there has not been a direct assessment of whether PB occurs in AR
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