Public opinion changing patterns under the double-hazard scenario of natural disaster and public health event

Abstract

In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, a “double-hazard scenario” consisting of a natural disaster and a public health event occurring simultaneously is likely to arise. Focusing on this double-hazard scenario, this study developed a new opinion dynamics model that verifies the effect of opinion dynamic in practical applications and extends the realistic meaning of the logic matrix. The new model can be used to quickly identify changing trends in public opinion about two co-occurring public safety events in China, helping the government to better anticipate and respond to these real double-hazard scenarios. The new model was tested with three real double-hazard scenarios involving natural disasters and public health events in China and the simulation results were analyzed. Using visualization and Pearson correlation coefficients to analyze more than a million items of network-wide public opinion data, the new model was found to show a good fit with reality. The study finally found that in China, public attention to both natural hazards and public health events was greater when these public safety events co-occurred (double-hazard scenario) than when they occurred separately (single-hazard scenarios). These results verify the coupling phenomenon of different disasters in a multi-hazard scenario at the information level for the first time, which is greatly meaningful for multi-hazard research.