Protecting the win, and securing the base: Kenya’s 2022 presidential election dispute and outcome

Abstract

ABSTRACT In much of Africa, opposition presidential candidates face the benefits of incumbency and often accuse the government of rigging. But in Kenya’s 2022 presidential election, it was the government-favoured candidate, Raila Odinga, who lost and accused the electoral body of rigging. Then-incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta had mobilised allies and senior government officials to support Odinga against his own deputy president, William Ruto, who won the election. Drawing on interviews, court proceedings and media coverage, we argue that Kenyatta and Odinga campaign compared poorly with Ruto’s robust mobilisation approach and use of class and religious narratives that resonated with voters. Also, the steadfast determination of the chairperson of the electoral body to withstand pressure of manipulation and to produce a transparent election by posting results on a publicly accessible portal created an atmosphere of openness that made it difficult to support rigging claims. This provided evidence to protect Ruto’s win. The claims of rigging served a purpose: they helped Odinga to secure his strongholds as a critical support base in subsequent power negotiations and likely as future voting blocs.