Abstract
While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%–8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention.
Highlights
Homicide offending by juveniles is relatively rare, yet approximately 7%–8% of all murders between 2010 and 2014 in the United States involved a juvenile perpetrator [1]
Public Health 2017, 14, 197 prospective examinations of initial homicide offending through analysis of risk factors prior to age 13 predicting homicide offending by age 18 among male and female youth involved in the juvenile justice system
This study examined the extent to which demographic, criminal history, school, personal and familial, and psychological risk factors measured by age 12 predict homicide offending up to age 18
Summary
Homicide offending by juveniles is relatively rare, yet approximately 7%–8% of all murders between 2010 and 2014 in the United States involved a juvenile perpetrator [1]. The vast majority of prior work on juvenile homicides has been plagued by methodological limitations, such as small (often convenience and/or clinical) case studies [4,5,6], lack of comparison groups [4,7], or has been comparative/descriptive rather than prospective in nature [8,9]. Clinical case studies most likely overstate the role of mental health in juvenile homicide, lack of comparison groups prevents the ability to elucidate causes of homicide or whether risk factors of homicide differ from those of other offenses, and retrospective studies lend themselves to bias wherein the outcome (homicide offending) is known leading to incomplete or inaccurate recall of self-reported or parent-reported risks [8]. The purpose of the current study is to add to the sparse prior
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