Prospecting technologies for photovoltaic solar energy: Overview of its technical‐commercial viability

Abstract

There are many technologies that may emerge and eventually disappear over the years. This fact makes the monitoring of technological trends as well as the anticipation of the direction of technological change paramount. This article aims to carry out the prospection of technologies, focusing on its technical-commercial viability, for solar photovoltaic energy. The research method had a qualititative-quantitative approach with application of the Delphi technique. In the conduction of the Delphi technique, seven steps were followed, ranging from the selection of the specialists to the considerations of their opinions regarding the future of nine photovoltaic technologies. The results of the research indicate that in 2020, the cells monocrystalline, multicrystalline, and amorphous silicon; cadmium telluride; indium/copper selenide, indium, and gallium diselenide; and multicompound III-V cells will have technical and commercial viability and that dye-sensitized silicon nanowire and carbon nanostructure-based cells will not be viable. For the year 2025, monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon cells and those of multicompounds III-V will still be technically and commercially viable. Silicon nanowire; amorphous silicon; cadmium telluride; indium/copper, selenium, and gallium diselenide dye-sensitized cells; and organic photovoltaic cells, including those based on carbon nanostructure, may be viable. This study is important, because the technological prospecting of the photovoltaic cells determines the possible trajectories of these cells, in a way that helps the companies of the sector to anticipate the strategic scenarios, thus facilitating the decision making process.