Proposal of the Use of a Fuzzy Stochastic Network for the Preliminary Evaluation of the Feasibility of the Process of the Adaptation of a Historical Building to a Particular Form of Use

Abstract

The knowledge of a real estate developer regarding the possibilities of adapting a historical building to a particular form of use and the knowledge of the approximate costs associated with this process are some of the more important pieces of information that can influence the making of the final decision regarding commencing with such a project. The preliminary analysis of the process of adapting a historical building is a difficult task due to the specific character of this type of project. The specific character of such a project is proven by the fact that the often insufficient analysis of the structure and architecture of a building and its historical substance at the stage of carrying out the process of adaptation can generate the necessity to perform previously unforeseen additional actions. An equally important problem is the difficulty in estimating the funds required to conduct research and the analyses associated with developing design documentation, as well as carrying out construction and conservation work. This is why a real estate developer should analyse various scenarios of carrying out a project during the stage of the preliminary analysis of its feasibility, taking into account the fact that some of them can occur in a random manner. The authors of the paper propose the use of one of the planning tools known as stochastic networks, which can be used to model the undetermined structure of these types of projects. Fuzzy logic was used in order to estimate uncertain values of the parameters of a model (the probability of performing work and paying the associated costs). The approach proposed by the authors was used to perform a preliminary analysis of the adaptation of the Arsenal in Gdańsk to a particular form of use along with estimating the costs associated with it. The results that were obtained have confirmed the potential of this method for real-world application.