Abstract

 Present study commences from the time series analysis of evaporation data sets obtained from the Coupled Modeled Inter comparison Project of Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the study period 1979 to 2100 under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios over Interior Peninsular region during the Northeast monsoon (October to December) period. Further, a comparative analysis has been carried out with the evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from the Hargreaves and Samani (1982) using the temperature data of India Meteorological Department for the period 1979 to 2005. Our results show that evaporation trends are increasing with more prominence in RCP 8.5 scenario. This increase in evaporation has been attributed to increase in air temperature which is an undisputed fact under future climate change scenario. Different climate models of CMIP5 show mixed response by displaying the positive and negative correlations with the Hargreaves ET over the study region. The results of the study will be useful in understanding the bias between the modeled data sets and the estimates of ET from the observations.
Highlights
Evapotranspiration is one of the important components in the Earth’s hydrological cycle
In light of above the present study focuses on the evaporation data sets obtained from the 19 global climate models of comparison Project of Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their ensemble mean from the year 1979-2100 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios
Maity et al, (2015) studied the monthly evaporation trends over India using CMIP5 data sets for the period 1850-2005 and found the verysmall decrement in NE region of India, Tamil Nadu and Kerala regions during the all months. In contrast to their results the ET has shown an increasing trend in the present work for the historical period 1979-2005. This increase in evaporation can be related to increasing air temperature over this study region has reported by Madhu et al (2014)
Summary
Evapotranspiration is one of the important components in the Earth’s hydrological cycle. In recent times the evapotranspiration estimates from the different reanalysis data sets and satellite measurements are emerged and showed that their variations follow the climatic variations These data sets can be used for large scale studies such as drought assessment studies, surface water conditions etc. The studies on future trends on the land surface parameters such as evapotranspiration are sparse over Indian context It ought to see the comparison of evaporation obtained from CMIP5 models and this will help in understating the bias and uncertainties between the two data sets. In light of above the present study focuses on the evaporation data sets obtained from the 19 global climate models of CMIP5 and their ensemble mean from the year 1979-2100 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios Further these data sets are independently compared with the evapotranspiration estimated from the Hargreaves and Samani method (1982) over peninsular India during the
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