Projecting the Electricity Demand of the Residential Sector in Thailand During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The residential sector in Thailand has been a fast-growing energy consumption sector since 1995 at a rate of 6% per year. This sector makes a significant contribution to Thailand’s rising electricity demand especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study projects Thailand’s residential electricity consumption characteristics and the factors affecting the growth of electricity consumption using a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach to forecast long-term electricity consumption in Thailand. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown can be seen as a forced social experiment, with the findings demonstrating how to use resources under particular circumstances. Four key factors affecting the electricity demand used in the SD model development include (1) work and study from home, (2) socio-demographic, (3) temperature changing, and (4) rise of GDP. Secondary and primary data, through questionnaire survey method, were used as data input for the model. The simulation results reveal that changing behavior on higher-wattage appliances has huge impacts on overall electricity consumption. The pressure to work and study at home contributes to rises of electricity consumption in the residential sector during and after COVID-19 pandemic. The government and related agencies may use the study results to plan for the electricity supply in the long term.