Abstract
Developing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to achieve green energy goals. Observational data show that the decline in wind speeds in the region may pose challenges for wind energy development. This study analyzed the long-term variation of the observed 2006–2020 and projected 2006–2100 near-surface wind speed at the height of 10 m over Lithuanian territory using data of three models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). A slight decrease in wind speeds was found in the whole territory of Lithuania for the projected wind speed data of three global circulation models for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. It was found that the most favorable scenario for wind energy production is RCP2.6, and the most unfavorable is the RCP4.5 scenario under which the decrease in wind speed may reach 12%. At the Baltic Sea coastal region, the decline was smaller than in the country’s inner regions by the end of the century. The highest reduction in speed is characteristic of the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. Although the analysis of wind speeds projected by global circulation models (GCM) confirms the downward trends in wind speeds found in the observational data, the projected changes in wind speeds are too small to significantly impact the development of wind farms in Lithuania.
Highlights
The analysis of wind speeds projected by global circulation models (GCM) confirms the downward trends in wind speeds found in the observational data, the projected changes in wind speeds are too small to significantly impact the development of wind farms in Lithuania
The goal set by the Lithuanian government is to reach at least 21% of the total electricity produced by renewable energy sources (RES) by 2030 [2,3,4,5]
Projected wind speed data were downscaled with the appropriate R packages [28], which find the closest point to the station
Summary
Climate change is one of the major concerns nowadays. Every country tries to reduce emissions and take other actions to prevent the strong impact of global warming. The European Union (EU) has released the directive 2018/2001, setting aims and goals to fight against increasing climate change [1]. One of the goals is to reduce CO2 emissions by 40%. The emission cut is proposed to implement by boosting energy production from renewable energy, which includes wind, solar, hydro, etc. Besides the directive of the EU, every country sets its own goals for climate change mitigation. The goal set by the Lithuanian government is to reach at least 21% of the total electricity produced by renewable energy sources (RES) by 2030 [2,3,4,5]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
