Projected impact of colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity in Europe

Abstract

The impact of a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity is unknown. The multispecialty needs for computerized tomographic examinations raise some doubts on the feasibility of a mass colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography. To assess whether the number of available computerized tomographic units in Europe is adequate to cover population screening with computerized tomographic colonography. A mathematical and a Markov model were, respectively, used to assess the number of computerized tomographic colonography procedures needed to be performed each day in the start-up and in the steady-state phases of a colorectal cancer screening programme in Europe. Such outcome was divided for the total number of computerized tomographic machines aged <10 years estimated to be present in the European hospitals. At a simulated 30% compliance, 28 760 130 European people would need to be screened by the 3482 available computerized tomographic units in a 5-year start-up period, corresponding to 6.6 CTC/CT unit/day. Assuming a 10-year repetition of computerized tomographic colonography between 50 and 80 years, the number of computerized tomographic colonography needed to be performed in the steady-state period appeared to be 4.3/CT unit/day. The current radiological capacity may cover the need for a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography in a steady state. On the other hand, a substantial implementation of the current computerized tomographic capacity or a synergistic approach with other techniques seems to be necessary for the start-up period.