Abstract
Projected Changes in Flood-Generating Precipitation Extremes Over the Czech Republic in High-Resolution Regional Climate ModelsClimate change scenarios of high quantiles of 5-day precipitation amounts (proxies for flood-generating events) over the Czech Republic are evaluated in an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ENSEMBLES project. The region-of-influence method of the regional frequency analysis is applied as a pooling scheme. This means that for any single gridbox, a homogeneous region (set of gridboxes) is identified and data from that region are used when fitting the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.The climate change scenarios for the late 21st century (2070-2099) show widespread increases in high quantiles of 5-day precipitation amounts in winter, consistent with projected changes in mean winter precipitation. In summer, increases in precipitation extremes occur despite an overall drying (prevailing declines in mean summer precipitation), which may have important hydrological implications. The results for summer suggest a possible substantial change in characteristics of warm-season precipitation over Central Europe, with more severe dry as well as wet extremes. The spatial pattern of projected changes in summer precipitation extremes, with larger increases in the western part of the area and smaller changes towards east, may also point to a declining
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