Abstract
Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.
Highlights
Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches
With an estimated total MRP of $100 billion, the variation in projected change in MRP between different Earth System Models (ESM) ranges from US $ 6 to 15 billion, which seems small in one particular sector but may amplify when the economic impact of fisheries-dependent sectors are considered[21]
The percentage changes in maximum catch potential (MCP) and MRP in the high seas are estimated at −3.2% and −4.8%, respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 while changes in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) are −8.2% and −1 1.4%, respectively
Summary
Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. The combined effects of the predicted distributional shift and changes in ocean productivity under climate change are expected to lead to changes in species composition[12] and global redistribution of maximum catch potential (MCP), with projected increases in MCP in high latitudinal regions and decreases in the tropics[13]. These changes have large implications for people who depend on fish for food and income, and the contribution of fisheries to the global economy[14,15]. These scenarios describe how future development of other production sectors in the economy would likely affect seafood prices
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