Progression of Pancreatic Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm Associates With Cyst Size

Abstract

Most guidelines for management of patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) vary in proposed surveillance intervals and durations-these are usually determined based on expert opinions rather than substantial evidence. The progression of and optimal surveillance intervals for branch-duct IPMNs (BD-IPMN) has not been widely studied. We evaluated the progression of BD-IPMN under surveillance at a single center, and determined optimal follow-up intervals and duration. We performed a retrospective analysis of 1369 patients with BD-IPMN seen at Seoul National University Hospital in Korea from January 2001 through December 2016. We included only patients whose imaging studies showed classical features of BD-IPMN, and collected data from each patient over time periods of at least 3 years. We reviewed radiologic and pathologic findings, and performed linear and binary logistic regressions to estimate cyst growth. The median annual growth rate of the cyst was 0.8 mm over a median follow-up time of 61 months. During surveillance, 46 patients (3.4%) underwent surgery because of disease progression after a median follow-up time (in this group) of 62 months. Worrisome features were observed in 209 patients (15.3%) during surveillance, including cyst size of 3 cm or more (n = 109, 8.0%), cyst wall thickening (n = 51, 3.7%), main pancreatic duct dilatation (n=77, 5.6%), and mural nodule (n = 43, 3.1%). Along with annual rate of cyst growth, incidences of main pancreatic duct dilatation and mural nodules associated with the sizes of cysts at detection (P < .001). In a retrospective analysis of patients with BD-IPMN followed for more than 5 years, we found most cysts to be indolent, but some rapidly grew and progressed. Surveillance protocols should therefore be individualized based on initial cyst size and rate of growth.