Abstract

IntroductionOver the past 20 years, the response to the HIV epidemic has achieved remarkable results. These results have often been motivated by targets adopted by countries through United Nations (UN) Political Declarations on HIV. The 2016 political declaration included two impact targets, to achieve a 75% decline in new HIV infections and AIDS‐related deaths between 2010 and 2020, and to reach the 90‐90‐90 testing and treatment targets by 2020. Our objective is to summarize progress towards these targets using robust and comparable HIV estimates released by UNAIDS in July 2021. In addition, we comment on the importance of targets and the modelled estimates required to quantify those targets.DiscussionThe UNAIDS estimates indicate that at the global and regional levels, the 2020 targets were missed: new infections declined by 31% and AIDS‐related deaths declined by 47% between 2010 and 2020, compared to a target of 75% decline for both indicators. Similarly, no region achieved the 90‐90‐90 testing and treatment targets. Some countries, in diverse settings, achieved these targets showing that the targets were not overly ambitious if the right funding, policies and evidence‐informed interventions at the right scale were in place. The 2021 UN Political Declaration on HIV, adopted on 8 June 2021, has set out a new set of ambitious but achievable targets for 2025. The 2025 targets and the required actions to reach those targets are described in the Global AIDS Strategy 2021–2026, which provides a framework to reprioritize HIV responses by reducing inequalities and building on the achievements of multiple Sustainable Development Goals. The Strategy encourages countries to monitor progress against targets for different geographic areas and populations to maximize equitable services and ensure accountability and also to understand why targets are being missed.ConclusionsThe UNAIDS epidemiological estimates provide information that promote accountability and estimate progress towards global targets at the national level. Additional strategic information and analyses are required to identify the populations that are furthest from the targets and the programmes and policies that are keeping countries from meeting their targets.

Highlights

  • Over the past 20 years, the response to the HIV epidemic has achieved remarkable results

  • The UNAIDS estimates are comparable across countries and are produced by country teams ensuring ownership of the results and that the most appropriate data are used to inform models [8]

  • The wide uncertainty bounds in the global testing and treatment estimates reflect the missing programmatic data from some countries and the modelled uncertainty of the estimates of people living with HIV

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Summary

Introduction

Over the past 20 years, the response to the HIV epidemic has achieved remarkable results. Since the first AIDS diagnoses in the early 1980s [1], the HIV response has produced remarkable achievements from community involvement in the response, to price negotiation with pharmaceutical companies, to scaling up treatment to over 27.5 million [uncertainty bounds (UB) 26.5–27.7 million] of the 37.7 million (UB 30.2–45.1 million) people living with HIV [2]. The lessons from these achievements allow countries to adopt evidence-based strategies and plot a clear trajectory towards ending the AIDS epidemic in the coming decade [3,4,5]. Additional targets were set to highlight the importance of prevention interventions and social enablers to end the AIDS epidemic [7]

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