Abstract
By carrying out a theoretical synthesis of the information on the regularities of population dynamics of some insect pests of agricultural plants and based on the past and present the authors have analysed the dynamics of many years in the number of the insect populations. An attempt to determine the presence of synchronism of outbreaks of the insects’ mass reproduction with the years of sharp changes in the solar activity has been made; the relationship between the changes in the number of the insects and meteorological and heliographic factors has been analysed. An analysis of the dynamics of the sun pest reproduction taking into account the duration of sunshine on the materials of one of the outbreaks (local population) in the Kupiansk district of the Kharkiv region showed the unreliability of this index as a predicate of the prognosis; and the reproduction rate of the local population of the sun pest does not change depending on the duration of the solar radiance. It is determined that this principle is also unsuitable for forecasting the dynamics in the number of this pest. The linear differential equations, in which not only the meteorological factors but also the indices of the solar activity (global factor) were used as variables were unsuitable for prognostication the dynamics in the number of the insects. The examples listed in the article confirm the fundamental regularity, namely the polycyclic dynamics of various natural systems and the synchronism in their development. The synchronization is inevitable because all objects of inanimate and living nature consist of the same chemical elements, and the conservation and conversion of energy is universal in nature. Based on the methodology of the cyclic dynamics it is possible to develop the algorithms for prognostication the regular mass reproduction of harmful insects.
Highlights
At the beginning and in the middle of the twentieth century in the former USSR, including Ukraine, the mass reproductions of multi-facated and specialised insect pests of agricultural crops, fruit and forest stands were noted
We have adapted this method in order to forecast the beginning of the regular mass reproduction of some species of insect pests of the agricultural crops and forest plantations; we proposed to use as the predicates the years of sharp changes in the solar activity instead of the predicates that had not suited for the forecasting purposes
The analysis of the dynamics of the sun pest reproduction, in the Kupiansk district, Kharkiv region, showed the unreliability of this index as a forecast predicate; the reproduction rate of the sun pest local population is not changed depending on the sunshine duration
Summary
At the beginning and in the middle of the twentieth century in the former USSR, including Ukraine, the mass reproductions of multi-facated and specialised insect pests of agricultural crops, fruit and forest stands were noted. The authors critically summarised the earlier works of the Ukrainian ecologists and made the important conclusions for prognostication in plant protection; they are as follows: – if the forecast is developed on the basis of the quantitative data obtained from the autumn surveys, one should not take into account the weather conditions forecasted for the year because weather forecast for such a long period can only be probabilistic, and it has no prospects to compare the meteorologic factors of this winter, spring and insect phenology; – the results of the autumn surveys must be compared with the dynamics of the previous years; – a qualitative assessment of the population variation of the insects (average weight and sex ratio) should be made; – it is necessary to determine the infection of the hibernating stage of the insects with the parasites and the affection caused by the pathogens These criteria are still taken into account by the specialists of the monitoring and forecasting services. The relationship between the changes in the insect numbers, meteorological and heliographic factors has been analysed
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