Prognostic factors of cancer recurrence and progression in non-muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma: A multicenter study of over 4,300 patients.

Abstract

249 Background: The outcomes of patients with non-muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (NMIUCB) remain poorly understood. The aim of our study was to identify prognostic factors of cancer recurrence and progression in patients with primary UCB. Methods: We performed a combined analysis on individual data from 4,325 patients with primary NMIUCB. Results: Within a median follow-up of 64 months, 1,960 patients (45.4%) experienced disease recurrence, 498 (11.5%) experienced progression to muscle-invasive stage, 1,155 (26.7%) died of any cause, and 310 (7.2%) died of their cancer. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age, higher grade, larger tumor size, higher number of tumors, number of prior recurrences, and type of intravesical therapy were independent predictors of disease recurrence and progression. While treatment intravesical chemotherapy was only associated with decreased/delayed cancer recurrence, intravesical BCG therapy was associated with decreased/delayed cancer recurrence and progression. The predictive accuracies of the models for recurrence and progression were 63.5% and 71.3%, respectively. Conclusions: Even in a heterogenous patient population, BCG therapy appears to decrease frequency and delay time to cancer recurrence and progression in patients with NMIUCB. Predictive tools based on combination of multiple clinical variables which capture the biological and clinical potential of nonmuscle-invasive disease could help with patient counseling and individualized risk assessment for adjuvant intravesical therapy and clinical trial design. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.