Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC): Comparison of four staging systems in two French clinical trials

Abstract

4589 Background: The aims of our study were to compare performances of 4 staging systems and to explore how to improve prognostic classification among French patients with HCC whose main aetiology is alcoholic cirrhosis. Methods: We have pooled 2 RCTs in palliative condition from Federation Francophone de Cancerologie Digestive (FFCD): - FFCD 9403 comparing tamoxifen vs symptomatic treatment and - FFCD 9402 comparing chemoembolization + tamoxifen vs tamoxifen alone. They had respectively included 416 and 122 patients. Performance of Okuda, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer group (BCLC) and GRoupe d’Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hépatocellulaire scores have been compared using: Akaike information criteria (AIC), discriminatory ability (Harrell’s c and the Royston’s D statistics), monocity of gradients and predictive accuracy (Schemper statistics Vs). To explore how to improve classifications univariate and multivariate Cox model were performed. Variables with univariate p< 0.10 have been retained for multivariate analyses. A forward selection procedure has then been implemented. Bootstraps validation was performed to test the robustness of our results. Analyses were done for each trial and for the pooled database with trial stratification. Results: Median OS was 5,3 months (IC 95%: [4,6; 6,2]), 402 patients had (75%) an alcoholic cirrhosis aetiology . As shown in Table 1 , CLIP staging had the best properties, followed by Okuda and BCLC. Performances of all staging systems were rather disappointing. WHO staging for CLIP or alphafetoprotein for BCLC allowed a significant improvement of prognostic information. Conclusions: Our results suggest that CLIP staging seems to be most adapted to french patients, it could be better by associating WHO PS. An external validation of our result will be performed on another trial in palliative condition. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.