Abstract
RESUMO – The oil industry in Brazil has accounted for US$ 300 billion in investments over the last 10 years and further expansions are planned in order to supply the needs of the future fuel market in terms of both quantity and quality. This work analyzes the Brazilian fuel production and market scenarios considering the country’s planned investments to prevent fuel deficit of around 30% in 2020. A nonlinear (NLP) operational planning model and a mixed-integer nonlinear (MINLP) investment planning model are proposed to predict the national overall capacity for different oil-refinery units aggregated in one hypothetical large refinery considering four possible future market scenarios. For the multi-refinery case, a phenomenological decomposition heuristic (PDH) method solves separated the quantity and logic variables in a mixed-integer linear (MILP) model, and the quantity and quality variables in an NLP model. Iteratively, the NLP model is restricted by the MILP results.
Highlights
Production planning is an essential tool in the modern oil-refining industry to predict strategic, tactical and operational settings for refineries and terminals in the oil supply chains
The modeling ofaproduction and logistics problem, including continuous and discrete decisions and considering nonlinearities from processing and blending relations, gives rise toan MINLP model, in which convergence problems and model size escalation constitute the main drawbacks due to limitations in the MINLP solvers, reducing the application of these types of models in industrial-sized problems. To overcome these challenges in the strategic planning problem for the future fuel market in Brazil the following models and methods are proposed: first, aggregated multi-site NLP and MINLP refineries models and, second, a decomposition strategy for multi-site refineriesto segregate the quantity-logic-quality (QLQ) phenomena of the MINLP modelin a master MILP problem coupled with slave NLP considering heuristic procedures to integrate both solutions
The national planned investments project an increase of 1,595 kbpd in crude distillation capacity, which includes refineries of PETROBRAS the national oil and energy company, which accounted for 98% of the total crude distillation capacity in 2013
Summary
Production planning is an essential tool in the modern oil-refining industry to predict strategic, tactical and operational settings for refineries and terminals in the oil supply chains. The national planned investments project an increase of 1,595 kbpd in crude distillation capacity, which includes refineries of PETROBRAS the national oil and energy company, which accounted for 98% of the total crude distillation capacity in 2013 Both NLP and MINLP aggregated models predict the national overall capacity expansion of oilrefinery units for possible Brazilian fuel market scenarios in 2020 considering the existing oil-refining assets in 2016, because only after this year the refineries currently under construction will be deployed on-stream. For the multi-site approach both the full space MINLP and its phenomenological decomposition model indicatecapacity expansion of the units in two refineries in the Sao Paulo (SP) supply chain (in yellow in Figure 1), currentlycomplemented by the four refineries in this state
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