Probability of Ship on Collision Courses Based on the New PAW Using MMG Model and AIS Data

Abstract

This paper proposes an estimation method for ships on collision courses taking crash astern maneuvers based on a new potential area of water (PAW) for maneuvering. A crash astern maneuver is an emergency option a ship can take when exposed to the risk of a collision with other ships that have lost control. However, lateral forces and yaw moments exerted by the reversing propeller, as well as the uncertainty of the initial speed and initial yaw rate, will move the ship out of the intended stopping position landing it in a dangerous area. A new PAW for crash astern maneuvers is thus introduced. The PAW is developed based on a probability density function of the initial yaw rate. Distributions of the yaw rates and speeds are analyzed from automatic identification system (AIS) data in Madura Strait, and estimated paths of the maneuvers are simulated using a mathematical maneuvering group model.