Abstract

Article 13 of the EU Directive on minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network states that a “risk analysis, where necessary, shall be carried out”. In the Netherlands, the risk of death for road users in a tunnel (internal risk) is calculated with a model for quantitative risk analysis, which is called “QRA-tunnels”. The probability of fire is an input parameter of this model. In 2013 the probability of a large fire has been calculated with a Bayesian approach, based on one large fire in 1978. In 2014 a second large fire has occurred in a Dutch tunnel. In this paper Bayesian inference is used for the calculation of the probability of a large fire in a road tunnel, based on two large fires. The calculations result in a slight but not significant increased probability of a large fire in a road tunnel.

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