PROBABILITY JUDGMENT AND EFFECTS OF THE SET

Abstract

This article examines functional peculiarities of probability judgments from the perspective of set psychology. We studied the impact perceptual standards on quantitative and probability evalua- tions (the level of human perceptual activity). Yielded following results: the introduction objective  standards values (number of countries population and correct examples of mortality reasons) had a  bigger impact on qualitative evaluations, then on probabilistic estimations. In these forms estimations  of the degree of confidence and the knowledge revealed to the objects under evaluation showed high  level of correlation. Relationship between those factors to be higher in the case of quantitative evalu- ations. Moreover, we investigated the influence prospective (orientation on the result of future event)  and situational (orientation on result current event) sets on functioning probability judgments (the  level of human purposive activity). Obtained data showed: prospective set, compared with situational  set, made significant impact on the correction of erroneous probabilistic judgments. At the same time,  it revealed, in the process of prospective sets functioning, stimulating impact of feedback (mark of the  fulfilled task) on probabilistic judgment. It indicates the importance of cognitive fixation by subject of  instrumental dependence between primary and secondary expected results.