Abstract
To semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate change on the slope failures, this paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. To discuss climate change, this study firstly analyzes the trend of the two main climate factors (precipitation and air temperature) based on the regression analysis results of the meteorological monitoring data during the past 120 years in different scales (e.g., world, country (Japan), and city (Sapporo)), and the downscaled outputs of three different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). Next, to discuss the effects of different climate factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and to determine the key climate factors on the slope instability, a slope stability assessment approach for evaluating the effects of climate changes on slope instability is proposed through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis with considering freeze-thaw action. Finally, to check the effectiveness of the above assessment approach, assessment of instability of an actual highway embankment slope with the local layer geometry is done by applying the past and predicted future climate data. The results indicate that affected by global warming, the air temperature rise in some cold cities is more serious. The climate changes (especially the increase in precipitation) in the future will increase the infiltration during the Spring season. It will lengthen the time that the highway slope is in an unstable state due to high volumetric water content, causing the occurrence of slope failures will be more concentrated in April. While during the Ssummer-Autumn period, the time domain of its occurrence will become wider.
Highlights
In the coldest month of the year, areas where the ground temperature is usually below 0 °C, are defined as cold regions [1, 2], such as some high latitude regions, like Hokkaido, Japan
It indicates that during the WinterSpring period the occurrence of slope failures will be more concentrated in April, while during the SummerAutumn period, the time domain of its occurrence will become wider
Discussions To assess the effects of climate change on the slope stability, this paper proposes an assessment approach for evaluating the effects of different climate factors on slope instability through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis with considering freeze-thaw action in seasonally cold regions
Summary
In the coldest month of the year, areas where the ground temperature is usually below 0 °C, are defined as cold regions [1, 2], such as some high latitude regions, like Hokkaido, Japan. The climate factors (e.g., precipitation and air temperature) and their variations are considered as the significant causes of slope failures or landslides [3, 4]. Many studies have been done to discuss the failure mechanisms and trigger factors of slope failures in the cold regions [5, 6]. Ishikawa et al [7] described that there is a difference in the failure mechanism of slopes between cold regions and warm-temperate regions due to additional factors, i.e., freeze-thaw action. Ishikawa et al [8] divided slope failures in cold regions into two main classes: slope failures occur during the snow-melting season (March–April-May) and slope failures occur during heavy rainfall season (August–September). It is necessary to investigate the influences of climate change on the slope stability in seasonally cold regions
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