Abstract
In order to calculate the reliability index of a circular tunnel excavated in a soil mass, the first-order reliability method (FORM) is used. A 2D numerical model in a transversal section and a serviceability limit state (SLS) is considered in this analysis. This work focuses on the tunnel lining bending moment and surface settlement trough. Only the soil parameters are considered as random variables. The response surface methodology is utilized for the assessment of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index βHL and is optimized by the use of a genetic algorithm. Two assumptions (normal distribution or non-normal) were used for the random variables. The comparison between analysis using negatively correlated and uncorrelated variables (Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio) indicates that the results are conservative if a negative correlation is considered among the elastic parameters. The assumption of non-normal distribution for the random variables has an effect on the reliability index of the surface settlements and lining bending moments.
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