Abstract

This study applies the unit tsunami method and probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to investigate the tsunami hazard for the southern region of Pingtung County in southern Taiwan. The FUNWAVE-TVD model is used to calculate the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The aleatory uncertainty is analyzed using a comparison of simulated and observed maximum tsunami wave heights and the epistemic uncertainty is evaluated using a scenario caused by earthquakes in the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones according to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan using Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 methodology. A unit tsunami method database is established for the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones and used to carry out a probability-based offshore tsunami wave height simulation for the southern region of Pingtung County. A hazard map for tsunamis caused by earthquakes in the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones is also derived.

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