Probabilistic Production Simulation for Industrial Integrated Energy System with Power and Steam Loads

Abstract

To make full use of renewable energy, integrated energy system(IES) has been developing in recent years with a variety of energy coordination, in which the power system is the core. This paper improves the probabilistic production simulation (PPS) method which is widely applied to the evaluation of economic efficiency and reliability of power-only system and proposes a probabilistic production simulation method suitable for industrial integrated energy system. This paper briefly introduces the load probability density function (LPDF) considering photovoltaic energy, energy storage, steam load and the unit commissioning convolution calculation. Then, simplify convolution operations using image translation methods. The electricity purchasing from the utility grid and calculation method of reliability index as well as the unit output are given. Finally, Guangdong Mingzhu demonstration zone is taken as an example. Applying the model to the example demonstrates the advantages of the method in the economic evaluation and reliability assessment of integrated energy systems.